4-Down Territory: From the CFP to the FBS--It's a Big College Football Weekend

In this week’s playoff edition, we’ll discuss all the playoff games in Division I, including the FCS semifinals. We’ll start with this question: what is the most expensive playoff ticket on the market this weekend? Alabama at Oklahoma? Miami at Texas A&M? Wrong on both counts. The Most expensive playoff ticket this weekend is #3 Montana at #2 Montana State in the FCS playoffs. As of Thursday morning, these were the cheapest tickets to the 6 playoff games in Division I for this weekend:

Illinois State at Villanova               $22

JMU at Oregon                                $82

Alabama at Oklahoma                  $146

Miami at Texas A&M                     $230

Tulane at Ole Miss                         $234

Montana at Montana State           $654

1^st Down: The FCS Semifinals: Illinois State (10-4) at #12 Villanova (11-2) Saturday 7:30 p.m. ESPN2: This is the chaos side of the FCS bracket; a bracket riddled with upsets. Illinois State is unseeded. To get here they had to upset #16 Southeastern Louisiana, #1 North Dakota State and #8 UC Davis all on the road. Now they travel to Philly to take on #12 Villanova. The Wildcats beat Harvard and then went on the road to score upsets at nearby #5 Lehigh and at #4 Tarleton State in Texas. Of all the upsets in college football the Illinois State win at NDSU may have been the biggest. They avenged an earlier 17-point loss, but that game was closer than people realized. Illinois State Head Coach Brock Spack was one of the most underrated defensive coordinators in the country during his time at Purdue with Joe Tiller. His defenses were and are still about speeding up the game and creating pressure for opposing teams. Villanova QB Pat McQuaide is the guy who makes Villanova go. He’s thrown 23 TDs and just 3 INTs this year and has nifty mobility that helps him extend plays. He will have to protect the ball against an Illinois State defense that has grabbed 18 interceptions……..#3 Montana (12-1) at #2 Montana State (12-2) Saturday 4:00 ABC: This is one of the great rivalries in college football and despite the excellence of these programs this is their first-ever playoff meeting. You can read about the Brawl of The Wild in the piece we published last week after going to see their regular season match-up. That game hinged on one key turnover that turned into a pick-6 for Montana State and pushed them to a 3-point win at Montana. It is hard to beat a team twice in football. What can you learn from the first game? Both of these offenses are very good. For Montana, QB Keali'I Ah Yat is the point guard of this offense. He makes plays with his feet; he extends plays and is hard to contain. But look for RB Eli Gillman who has racked up 1,400+ yards on the ground and seems to get better as the game goes along. But the most dynamic member of the Griz offense is WR Michael Wortham. If someone had posted his numbers at the FBS level, they would’ve been in NYC as a Heisman finalist. He’s racked up 1,139 receiving yards and 10 TDs. But he’s also a Wildcat QB and has 55 rushes for 338 yards and 7 more TDs and has completed 3 of 4 passes for 50 yards and a TD. And he’s racked up another 738 kick return yards. All told he’s totaled 2,261 yards and 17 TDs receiving, rushing and returning kicks and punts. But against Montana State in November, he had just 1 catch for 3 yards. Expect Montana to change that. Montana State’s defense is the x-factor here. They were a national Top 10 defense in the regular season (and rank #11 now). They create lots of turnovers (17 INTs and 11 fumble recoveries) and get pressure on the opposing QB. But how well they can contain the extended plays by Ah Yat will be the truest test. When you flip to the Montana State offense, they have a run/pass threat at QB in Stanford transfer Justin Lamson. His 80 yards rushing on 15 carries in these team’s first meeting proved to be a pivotal dimension in that 31-28 win. And with 661 yards rushing Lamson ranks third on the team with Julius Davis (1,044 rushing yards) and Adam Jones (916 yards) ahead of him. That explains why they are the nation’s 4^th-best rushing offense. If this game lives up to the excitement of that last game, this is where you want to have your TV tuned on Saturday afternoon.

2^nd Down: Rematches: You hear coaches talk about how tough it is to beat the same team twice in a season. That was evident on conference championship weekend when 6 games were rematches and the regular season winners went 2-4. Most notably Georgia avenged an earlier season loss to Alabama and Duke beat Virginia throwing the playoff selections into chaos. The committee certainly was not afraid of rematches with two of the opening weekend's games being rematches. And if Ole Miss wins one rematch this weekend, they get a 2^nd round rematch against Georgia. But first things first……#9 Alabama (10-3) at #8 Oklahoma (10-2) Friday 8:00 ABC: These are two teams that statistically would not seem to be worthy of playoff slots. They both struggle to run the ball, and they lack some of the big play capabilities on offense other playoff teams have. But they both play excellent defense. Oklahoma won the first meeting despite being dominated statistically. Alabama rolled up 406 total yards to Oklahoma’s 212 yards. The difference was turnover margin. Alabama lost 2 fumbles and yielded an 87 yard pick-6. The irony in that -3 turnover margin is that Alabama is +7 on the season while OU is -2. In the SEC title game for Alabama it was the details that cost them as well. A blocked punt, allowing a big punt return and an interception led to short fields and 21 points for Georgia. Oklahoma will need some of that same magic. One of the other keys in the first matchup for Oklahoma was pass rush. The nation’s leading sack team (41 sacks) got to Alabama QB Ty Simpson four times and forced that pick-6 and another fumble. And they did it without their best pass rusher R Mason Thomas who will return for this game. Look for Alabama to try to get their WRs involved with screens and by getting the ball out early. As for Oklahoma, QB John Mateer will have to protect the football and get some timely first downs with his legs. Third down conversions (80^th in the country) and time of possession (78^th nationally) have been problems for them. By comparison those have been areas of strength for the Crimson Tide. One wildcard for this game? OU Kicker Tate Sandell is 7 for 7 on field goals over 50 yards……..#11 Tulane (11-2) at #6 Ole Miss (11-1) 3:30 TNT/HBOMax: Ole Miss rolled in the first meeting between these two teams, but a lot has changed since then. Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss was still relatively unknown making just his 2^nd start for Ole Miss in that game. The Ole Miss defense dominated the key situations holding the Green Wave to just 6 of 15 conversions on 3^rd downs and 0 for 3 on 4^th downs. Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff had his worst day of the season hitting just 5 of 17 passes. A key stat for Tulane has been turnover margin and disruption plays. They’ve gotten 34 sacks (16^th nationally), 81 tackles for loss (33^rd) 15 interceptions (12^th) and 9 fumbles (15^th). Their turnover margin is a gaudy +10 (11^th nationally). Those plays will be critical if they are going to have a chance to slow the Ole Miss offense. They rank 3^rd in total offense and rolled up 540+ yards against Tulane in the first meeting (307 passing and 241 rushing). What really stands out is that Ole Miss averaged just under 8 yards per play in that game. If Tulane can’t slow them down and can’t get some turnovers Ole Miss will be heading from one rematch to another.

3^rd Down: ACC/SEC Showdown: #10 Miami (10-2) at #7 Texas A&M (11-1) Saturday 12:00 ABC: This game may be the most entertaining of the weekend’s playoff games. Both teams feature excellent QB play. Miami QB Carson Beck has thrown for 3,072 yards and 25 TDs. A&M QB Marcel Reed has thrown for 2,932 yards and 25 TDs but has the added dimension of 466 rushing yards and 6 more TDs. Both of these QBs occasionally get in the giving mood having both thrown 10 INTs on the year. Keep an eye out for big play A&M receivers KC Concepcion and Mario Craver. And when Miami has the ball definitely watch for freshman WR #10 Malachi Toney. He’s caught 84 passes but has also racked up 17 carries and has completed 4 of 6 passes. He also returns punts. Star power aside, these are two top 20 caliber offenses facing two top 20 defenses. There are some subtle differences beyond the mobility of A&M’s QB. Miami is much better converting third downs and in the Red Zone. Texas A&M pass rusher Cashius Howell has racked up 11.5 sacks on the year and is a disruptive force on a defense that ranks 1^st in sacks (41) and 2^nd in tackles for loss (104). Both of these defenses rank in the Top 10 in getting 3^rd-down stops. But the biggest difference is in the turnover game. Texas A&M is -7 in turnover margin for the year and has netted just 3 INTs and 6 fumbles. Miami on the other hand is +9 in turnover margin fueled by 12 INTs and 8 fumbles. In games where so many things seem to be fairly balanced, things like special teams plays and turnovers often tip the game one way or another.

Oregon Fans Celebrate with SHOUT! BY Otis Day and The Knights.

4^th Down: SHOUT! JMU Takes A Big Step Up: #12 JMU (12-1) at #5 Oregon (11-1) Saturday 7:30 pm TNT/HBOMax: JMU moved to FBS from FCS in 2022. In that time, they’ve played 5 games against Power-4/Power-5 teams. This year they lost 14-28 at Louisville and bested Washington State 24-20. In 2024 they won 70-50 at UNC, in 2023 they won 36-35 at UVA and in 2022 they lost 10-34 at Louisville. None of those games have been against a ranked opponent. Coming to Eugene to play the #5 team in the country is uncharted territory for JMU. They’ve racked up numbers that put them in the top 10 in scoring offense and scoring defense. They are great against the run (2^nd), 12^th in total defense and 6^th in pass efficiency defense. On offense they have lofty national rankings similar to Oregon, just like they do on defense. Then difference is that Oregon has had to play a much tougher schedule to post those statistical numbers. The question will be if JMU can play to this level. They are disruptive on defense. They have dominated their competition. Since a 14-7 nail-biter over lowly Georgia State they’ve outscored their conference opponents by an average of over 29 points. They’ve relied on the run game where they rank 5^th nationally behind the legs of RB Wayne Knight. But they have balance in the pass game behind QB Alonza Barnett. JMU will be facing the best front they’ve seen all year, a front that has gotten better and better each week. And it will be loud in Autzen Stadium. Turning to JMU’s defense, they’ve been dominant. But Oregon comes at you with a stable of running backs, a physical offensive line and TE Kenyon Sadiq who is a massive match-up problem. The WRs have been injury prone but the latest report has game breakers Evan Stewart, Dakorien Moore, and Gary Bryant Jr. listed as questionable. If any or all of them can go on Saturday it is a huge boost. But as long as they can run the ball and get the big passes from QB Dante Moore this offense will be capable of doing enough to get the win.