4-Down Territory: Army/Navy, FCS Playoffs, HeisMendoza & New PSU Coach Matt Campbell by the Numbers

Army/Navy takes center stage on Saturday. But there is also this little thing called the Heisman Trophy as well as the round of 8 in the FCS playoffs. Those games shift to network TV this weekend. And then there is the small matter of Penn State hiring a new head football coach. And in the last few days we've even seen how mental health can impact people at the highest level of the game. All that is in this week’s Pigskin Stew.

PRE-GAME: MENTAL HEALTH of Players and Coaches: This new era of college football has changed the mental health challenges to both players and coaches in new and more demanding ways. That was a big part of what I found when writing the book "Blitzed! The All-Out Pressure of College Football's New Era". The novel is based on real stories of the pressures facing the most visible people in the game. Mental health is a big part of this book, and my own study of these issues and time spent with experts is part of it. We've seen players and coaches reach that breaking point in recent days. Whether you are an aspiring coach, football player, the parent of a player or just a fan this book gives unique insight into the toll it takes. You can get a copy here, or on Amazon or wherever books are sold.

1st Down: The Greatest College Tradition: Army (6-5) vs Navy (9-2) Baltimore 3:00 CBS: Time of possession is the name of the game for both of these teams. Army leads the nation in that category (roughly 35 minutes per game) and Navy is 17^th at a “paltry” by comparison 32 minutes per game. Navy holds the ball by converting lots of third downs (almost 50%) while Army does it with a deliberate tempo that bleeds time. And if you like old-school three yards and a cloud of rubber pellets from the synthetic turf, this is the game for you. Navy runs the ball 49 times per game, while Army averages 55 runs per game. Given the expected limited number of possessions, scoring on each drive becomes a primary focus. This is one of college football’s most enduring and important traditional rivalry games because it transcends the sport.

2^nd Down: FCS Playoffs Part 1—The Big Sky Invitational: #7 Stephen F Austin (11-2) at #2 Montana State (11-2) FRIDAY 9:00 ESPN: The weather will be roughly 50 degrees and mostly cloudy. Can SFA slow down the Bobcats’ offense? They’ve been one of the very best in the country because they can hurt you a number of ways………#11 South Dakota (10-4) at #3 Montana (12-1) Saturday 3:30 ABC: The weather will be cloudy and 48 degrees. Ever since Montana State won at Montana the Griz have been itching for a rematch. To do so, they will need their best game to beat South Dakota who is coming off a rout on the road over 6^th-seeded Mercer. Both of these teams seem to be peaking at the right time. It should make for an exciting network broadcast for ABC.

3^rd Down: The Upset Bracket: #12 Villanova (11-2) at #4 Tarleton State (12-1) Saturday 12:00 ESPN: Weather: 68 degrees partly sunny & pleasant: It will seem downright balmy for Villanova. The Wildcats knocked off previously undefeated Lehigh last week. If they play well again will they have enough to beat Tarleton State? Maybe some divine intervention from Villanova alum Pope Leo can push them over the edge……Illinois State (10-4) at #8 UC Davis (9-3) Saturday 5:00 ESPN+: Weather 49 degrees and partly sunny: Illinois State pulled off the upset of the year, if not the decade when they beat #1 seed North Dakota State last week.

4^th Down: HeisMendoza: The HeisMendoza campaign for Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza has been effective. But it has been the consistent excellent performance punctuated by clutch throws in big games that has likely clinched the Heisman Trophy for him. Penn State fans will be seeing the game-winning throw and catch Mendoza executed against the Nittany Lions 1,000 times this weekend leading up to the announcement Saturday night. Personally, I was hoping IU would lean into featuring his first name in their Heisman Hype using the ABBA song “Fernando” or maybe even Billy Crystal’s SNL Skits “Fernando’s Hideaway”. After all Fernando has looked “Mahvelous”. And since “It always better to look good than to feel good”, Mendoza looked good even when he was aching from an early hit in the Big Ten Title game. Check out legendary broadcaster Howard Cosell in Fernando's Hideaway.

Moving The Chains: Penn State Hires Matt Campbell: While no one is ever 100% of what will happen when they hire a new coach, Matt comes to Penn State with 15 years as a head coach to study. We looked back at numbers and stats from the last 8 years.

1^st Down: First things first Academics: In his press conference which featured three people up front, Coach Matt Campbell was the guy who brought up the academic performance of his players at Iowa State. It isn’t all talk. One look at the NCAA Academic Performance Rating (APR) of Iowa State shows they’ve risen from 8^th in the Big 12 to consistently being 2^nd or 3^rd in the conference. For Penn State fans who remember the run of time when Penn State averaged finishing 2^nd in the Big Ten (behind only Northwestern) there is some hope that Matt Campbell can return Penn State to that era after a decade averaging next to last in the Big Ten in APR Ratings.

2^nd Down: Development at its Core: In Matt’s own words, he runs a program that will be focused on recruiting high school players that want to come to Penn State to compete for championships and develop across time. The best evidence is Exhibit A: The QB position. In the last 8 years there have been just three starting QBs, notably Brock Purdy for 4 years and 2025 starter Rocco Brecht just finished his third year as a starter. Purdy racked up 11,948 yards and 81 TDs through the air in four years. Brecht is at 9.275 yards and 64 TDs through the air in his three years. They are just two obvious examples of a program that wants to get players into their system and then make them better each year.

3^rd Down: Defense: The last eight years show a commitment to a couple of key factors on defense. They’ve done a great job preventing TDs in the Red Zone (yielding TDs an average of just 57% of the time). Across that 8-year span they’ve held opponents to a very healthy 38.1% 3^rd down conversions rate. But where they really excel is in the turnover game. That has ramped up the past three years. They change things up in coverage netting a whopping 42 interceptions the past three years, and they aggressively strip the ball resulting in 24 fumble recoveries the past three years. That has resulted in an impressive +26 turnover margin.

4^th Down: Time of Possession and So Much More: Iowa State has focused on time of possession averaging about 31 minutes per game the last 8 years. That has been helped by the Run/Pass option (RPO) game. Part of being successful in the RPO game is having quarterbacks that are mobile. They’re not looking for 15 carries a game, but they know having that guy at QB makes things difficult on the defense. Along with the passing yards amassed by Brock Purdy, he was also a career 1,193 yard rusher who racked up 19 TDs. Rocco Brecht also has 19 rushing TDs and is at 499 career rushing yards. This year’s offense featured a potent inside out threat with a 6-7 (yes 6-7) tight end matchup problem that helps open up the outside for some dangerous WRs.

5th Down: What Does This All Mean?: What’s past is prologue and eight years of statistical trends point towards deliberate results born of a consistent philosophy and approach. Above all this is a team that has learned to thrive in one score games racking up an 11-4 mark in their last 15 one-score games. It means that this team will be schooled in fundamentals like attacking the ball to get turnovers, winning the situations and using the pass and run to control the clock and the tempo of the game. It means that this is a program that will be focused not on just building a roster, but also building a cohesive team that can compete in the classroom and on the field at the highest level.