4-Down Territory: Will Fiesta Bowl Ghosts Haunt Miami & a Big-Time Big-Ten Rematch

Pre-Game Warm-ups: On Campus Quarterfinals: While the announced attendances for the quarterfinal games would indicate that the crowds were good, the images on TV suggested some softness. That's likely a function of asking fans to travel to three bowl games. Assuming a National title game run, this is how it breaks out in air miles traveled for fans of the four semifinalists. The Ole Miss path winds from New Orleans, to Glendale, AZ and to Miami. That’s 4,828 roundtrip miles. But the Sugar Bowl was a drive for many Reb fans. For Miami trips to Dallas and Arizona lead to a game across town in South Florida. Their air miles will total 6,178. Indiana headed to Pasadena before games in Atlanta and potentially in Miami. That totals 6,532 miles. Oregon (as noted here last week) is a whole other thing. Games in Miami and Atlanta could lead to a title game in Miami for a total of 15,170 miles. Travel can become cost prohibitive for many fans. Even Oregon's Dan Lanning mentioned that he'd rather go play Texas Tech at their home field rather than in Miami. The on-campus quarterfinals would jack attendance, excitement and create better demand. As of Wednesday afternoon, the secondary ticket market showed prices as low as $56 to get into the Fiesta Bowl and $181 to get into the Peach Bowl. No doubt the playoff format will be discussed during the offseason along with a whole range of college football calendar challenges.

1^st Down: Excuses, Excuses SEC Edition: Not long after Indiana thumped Alabama 38-3 and capped off a 2-7 SEC run against other conferences in bowl games the talking points and talking heads were out in force. The talk was how difficult a gauntlet the SEC teams have to run to get to the postseason. The talk was about how many ranked teams SEC teams have to play during the season. Part of that is a product of preseason polls. Ten SEC teams were ranked in the preseason AP Top 25. That is a function of the SEC brand. And having only 8 conference games allows many of those teams to start out 3-0 or 4-0 and stay ranked. When unranked SEC teams beat these "ranked" SEC teams, they get credit for a win over a ranked team. LSU #9, South Carolina #13, Florida #15 and Tennessee #24 were four of those preseason ranked teams. The perceived strength of Vanderbilt’s case for a playoff spot was their 4 wins over ranked teams; #11 South Carolina, #10 LSU, #15 Missouri and #19 Tennessee. None of those teams were ranked in the last College Football Playoff poll and they compiled a combined 27-21 record heading into the bowl games where all three that made bowl games subsequently lost. As for Vanderbilt they fell in their bowl game to #23 Iowa. Even before the bowl there was some discussion about Iowa being ranked with an 8-4 record. The committee recognized Iowa’s close one-score losses to teams that were not only ranked during the season BUT also ranked in the final polls (#1 Indiana, #5 Oregon, #16 USC). At the end of the regular season 7 SEC teams were ranked in the final CFP poll and 5 of them got into the playoff. Most controversially Alabama got into the playoff with a 10-3 record over Notre Dame who’d won 10 straight games to finish 10-2. Next year it all changes as the SEC moves to 9 conference games.

2^nd Down: Big Ten Bowl Prowess: There has been a lot of thumping of chests around the Midwest about the Big Ten’s 9-4 record in bowl games. It is a great performance to be sure; one bolstered by a 3-1 record against the SEC. But when you pull out the Big Ten’s record against the Power-4 teams the Big Ten is 1-1 vs the ACC and 1-2 vs the Big 12. The Bowl slate included wins over a Sun Belt team, 1 over a MAC team and 2 over Mountain West teams. But from an historical perspective it was a great year for the Big Ten in bowls. Heading into the semifinals the Big Ten is 328-317-7 (50.8%) all time in bowl games. Just 7 of the 18 Big Ten teams have bowl records that are over 50%; USC 63.4%, Penn State 61.4%, Rutgers 58.3%, Wisconsin 54.3%, Michigan State 53.8%, Purdue 52.4% and Iowa 51.3%. As for all-time bowl wins in the Big Ten USC leads the way with a 36-21 record followed by Penn State 34-21-2, Ohio State 30-30, Nebraska 27-28, Michigan 24-30 and Washington 21-22-1. Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz set a Big Ten record notching his 11^th Bowl win as a Big Ten Coach passing Joe Paterno who won ten bowl games (10-4 record) as a Big Ten Coach. Of note: for his career Paterno was 24-12-1 in bowl games including a 13-5 record in the 5 major bowls (Orange, Sugar, Cotton, Fiesta and Rose) and a 12-7 record against current SEC teams.  

3^rd Down: A Haunting in Arizona: The Fiesta Bowl #10 Miami vs #6 Ole Miss Glendale, Arizona 7:30 ESPN: There are some serious ghosts for Miami when it comes to the Fiesta Bowl. Luckily for former Miami WR & current cheerleader Michael Irvin this game is no longer played in Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe. That is where he was afflicted by short arms disease and a heightened sense of hearing that provided acute detection of approaching footsteps. He's the WR atop the screen in the 3-point stance. All that is ancient history. This Miami team has no connection to that game or the 2002 loss to Ohio State. Miami’s defense showed how strong they are upfront last week. The pass rush was incredible and changed the game. But the Ole Miss offense is a tougher assignment than OSU for 2 reasons. First QB Trinidad Chambliss’ athleticism allows him to evade the rush far more effectively than the OSU QB. Against Georgia last week, Chambliss used his athletic ability to avoid sacks, extend plays and make some critical runs and passes to move the chains when all hope should have been lost. The other reason Ole Miss is a tougher task than OSU is the underrated part of the Ole Miss offense, the run game. RB Kewan Lacy has 1,464 yards and 23 TDs and last week he made the tough carries to pick up the tough yards against Georgia. The combination of the run game and mobile QB will put some real pressure on the Miami secondary when the explosive Rebel receiving corps gets downfield. As for the Miami offense, the challenge will be finding some explosive plays. The underrated part of the Miami offense is also their run game. It has emerged in the playoffs. The Canes ran for 175 yards at Texas A&M and for 153 against Ohio State. After rushing for a combined 49 yards on 16 carries to close the season against Virginia Tech, Miami RB Mark Fletcher had 172 yards against A&M and 90 yards vs the Buckeyes. The ability to control the line in the 4^th quarter was the key to both wins. If they can match that production and keep the Ole Miss offense on the sideline that could prove critical. But against Georgia the Ole Miss defense tackled well and did not allow a run longer than 16 yards and did not allow a play of over 28 yards. They got timely stops, held Georgia to 3 of 13 on 3^rd downs and gave their offense a chance to win the game. Miami is 0-4 all-time in the Fiesta Bowl and they would like nothing better than to exorcise the ghosts of some painful losses in the Valley of the Sun.

4^th Down: The Rematch: The Peach Bowl #5 Oregon vs #1 Indiana Atlanta, GA 7:30 ESPN: This is a rematch of a landmark win for Indiana at Oregon earlier this season. What was the difference for the Hoosiers in that one? Defense. They got consistent and relentless pressure on Oregon QB Donte Moore. They forced two turnovers. The won the time of possession, they were more consistent on 3^rd downs and in the Red Zone. In short they won the situation battles in a game where both defenses played well and limited the big play offenses. For the season Indiana averages 7 yards per play and Oregon averages 6.9. In that game IU managed just 4.8 per play and Oregon just 4.2. The IU WRs were effective in connecting on back-shoulder fades, but they were careful to attack the Oregon corners and DBs not named Brandon Finney (he had an INT and broke up 2 passes in that game). Expect that trend to continue as Finney is coming off a 2 INT/ 1 fumble recovery game. Both defenses are really hitting their stride. Indiana held Alabama to 3 points while Oregon pitched a shutout against a Texas Tech offense that was averaging 48 points a game.

What’s Changed since they played on October 11^th? Indiana suffered some injuries on defense but managed to keep winning and they look to be pretty healthy with the exception of standout DT Stephen Daley.  IU WR Elijiah Sarratt had 8 catches for 121 yards in that Oregon game. But he got hurt against UCLA and did not play again until the season finale against Purdue. Here’s what’s new; WR Charle Becker emerged as a big, dangerous threat. While Sarratt was out Becker had big games against Penn State (7 catches 118 yards) and Wisconsin (5 catches 188 yards 1 TD) and continued to thrive after Sarratt returned. Against Ohio State he snagged 6 passes for 126 yards and against Alabama he grabbed 2 more for 51 yards and a TD. That 4^th WR option makes Mendoza even more dangerous and unpredictable. For Oregon, they too suffered WR injuries that changed them offensively. Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant both missed 4 games (Iowa, Minnesota, USC & Washington). Into that void, Oregon started to play more two tight end sets, and the tight end pass game really soared. Kenyon Sadiq racked up 8 catches for 96 yards and a TD against Minnesota and 6 catches for 72 yards and 2 more TDs against USC. But he was a known commodity. The 2^nd tight end Jamari Jackson became a big contributor and in the past six games he’s made 19 of his season’s 28 catches. In those six games his blocking and 274 receiving yards have given opposing defensive coordinators more to look at. That helped the Ducks’ run game in that stretch when the pass game was missing their biggest threats.

What’s Next?: Both defenses look good enough to keep this game in check. Oregon’s front played their best game of the season in the Orange Bowl. Indiana’s defense shattered the myth of SEC dominance with talent, toughness and a scheme that created confusion. Those factors were in play the first time they played. Oregon was sloppy on offense last week against a great Texas Tech front and the game should have been even more lopsided. Oregon will run three different RBs at Indiana, while Indiana will counter with their own physical one/two punch at RB. Mendoza and Moore are two of the truly elite QBs in the country. Both teams boast an outstanding CB, complex defensive schemes and try to create chaos with pre- and post-snap movement. Indiana’s defense wants to live in your backfield and is among the national leaders in getting stops behind the line. That was a problem for Oregon against Texas Tech. Oregon’s o-line will have a big challenge there. But some of those 2-tight end sets and a healthy WR corps can help the run game and create some downfield pass plays with play-action.

The Keys: The Three S System: Situations, Stops, Security: Win the Situations by converting 3^rd and 4^th downs, kicking plays and the Red Zone. Each red zone possession begins with 7 points up for grabs. A field goal is a one-point win for the defense. Stops mean finding ways to get the opposing offense off the field. It goes beyond 3^rd and 4^th downs. It starts with stops on 1^st downs that get an offense off schedule. And Security is all about ball security. But it goes beyond fumbles and interceptions. It includes penalties like pass interference or roughing the passer on 3^rd downs that move the chains. It includes preventing fake kicks or punts that allow a team to keep securing the football. These are two teams that excel in a range of areas and they know each other. Execution and precision will matter. Nowhere are execution and precision more difficult to attain than on the offensive line. With all the exciting skill players and quarterbacks, the keystone for success in this game starts up front.