4-Down Territory: Interim Coach Promotions, Playoff Resumes & a Weekend of Big Rivalries & De Facto Playoff Play-Ins.....

There's lots to talk about in college football this week. Let's start with a pre-game warm-up of off-field commentary before getting into a massive week of rivalry games and de facto playoff play-ins. (De Facto---thanks Mom & Dad for making me take two years of Latin--it finally came in handy).

Pre-Game Warm-up: Interim Head Coaches & Strength of Schedule: Penn State’s Terry Smith is 2-3 since taking over and is two plays away from being 4-1. That stretch included games at Iowa, at #1 Ohio State and a home loss to #2 Indiana on a circus catch late in the game. At a time when Penn State was playing the toughest stretch of their schedule with a brand-new starting QB it was a steep climb. The last two weeks of winning have energized the team, the program and the fan base. That has sparked discussion about promoting Terry Smith full-time to be Penn State's next Head Coach after 6 weeks of a national coaching search.

Saturday night after the Penn State game on NBC former Nittany Lion and NBC analyst Michael Robinson advocated for promoting Smith. Robinson is a universally respected former player, and his opinion was noteworthy and resonated with a number of Penn Staters. NBC’s Chris Simms and Nicole Auerbach offered a counterpoint to promoting Smith. At one point their commentary went along the lines that Penn State fired James Franklin so how could they promote one of his assistants to be the next head coach?

Without taking sides on any one candidate at any particular school, we found there are examples showing that interim coaches who get promoted can be very successful.

If you look at the last 10 National Championships, you’ll see that Nick Saban won three at Alabama and Kirby Smart won two at Georgia and Jim Harbaugh won one at Michigan. They were high-profile hires.

What about the other 4 National Championships? They were all won by "interim" or "acting" Head Coaches that were promoted from within.

In 2008 Clemson Head Coach Tommy Bowden resigned mid-season and his assistant Dabo Swinney was named interim head coach. They went 4-3 and Dabo was promoted after the season. He went on to win two national titles in 2016 and 2018. In 2016 LSU fired head coach Les Miles mid-season and his assistant Ed Orgeron was named interim head coach. They went 6-2 and Ed "Go Tigers" became the head coach. They won the National Title in 2019. And in 2018 Ryan Day served as the acting head coach at Ohio State for three games going 3-0. At season’s end he was named the head coach following Urban Meyer’s retirement. In 2024 he won a National Title.

That means 4 of the last 10 National Titles were won by coaches who ascended from an interim head coach role. Neither Swinney nor Day had been a head coach and Orgeron had been fired previously as a head coach.

And if we want to split hairs, current Michigan Head Coach Sherrone Moore was the acting head coach at Michigan for 4 games in 2023, the year they won the national title. He went 4-0 and was at the helm in wins at #10 Penn State and against #2 Ohio State.

Two other notable examples are Lloyd Carr who became the acting head coach at Michigan in May of 1995 and finished 9-4. He got promoted after the season and then won the National Title in 1997. Phil Fulmer was the interim coach at Tennessee for three weeks in 1992 going 3-0. He was promoted after that season and went on to win a National Title in 1998.

What comes next for Penn State is up to the administration, but there are certainly historical examples to support promoting an interim coach.

Playoff Committee Should Reward Macho Non-Conference Scheduling: The Texas Longhorns are sitting at 8-3 and are ranked #16 in the current playoff rankings. They play #3 Texas A&M on Friday. If they should win (and that is a tall task), the committee faces a very difficult challenge. The Longhorns own wins over #8 Oklahoma, #14 Vanderbilt and if they get a win over #3 Texas A&M they should get in the playoffs. At 9-3 they should get in over a number of 10-2 teams. Why? Because one of their three losses was in their non-conference season-opening 14-7 loss on the road to current #1 Ohio State. Texas could have opened with a cupcake game, and they’d be 10-2 and no one would argue. Texas will be playing Ohio State again next year and in the near future Ohio State will also be playing Alabama and Georgia in home-and-home series. College football needs more of these matchups and, should UT win, the committee can reinforce that kind of macho-scheduling by rewarding it.

A roadside replica of the Texas A&M bonfire on the road between Austin & College Station. Note its stated goal to "Beat the Hell outta T.U."

1^st Down Black Friday--All these games air on Friday: Let the shoppers shop, and let the ballers watch COLLEGE football.......Iowa (7-4) at Nebraska (7-4) 12:00 CBS: Nebraska’s defense had a hard time stopping the run against Penn State. Iowa likes to run and they like the play-action game. Nebraska QB TJ Lateef is making his 3^rd career start, his second in a row against a top-20 pass defense……#7 Ole Miss (10-1) at Mississippi State (5-6) 12:00 ABC: An Ole Miss win here essentially seals a playoff spot. But will Coach Lane Kiffin be staying in Oxford? He is expected to answer that question at a post-game press conference. Mississippi State may be 1-6 in the SEC and 5-6 overall, but they are a much better home team than on the road. They’ll need to tighten up on defense against an explosive Ole Miss offense…..#4 Georgia (10-1) at #23 Georgia Tech (9-2) 3:30 ABC: After an 8-0 start Georgia Tech has struggled the last three weeks going 1-2. The difference has been on defense. In the 8 season-opening wins they allowed just 20 points per game. The last three weeks they’ve given up 41.3 per game. And here comes a UGA offense playing their best football of the year……#2 Indiana (11-0) at Purdue (2-9) 7:30 NBC: Both teams are coming off a bye week heading into this game. Indiana should get up early and accelerate through the finish to punch their ticket to Indy and the Big Ten Title game….#3 Texas A&M (11-0) at #16 Texas (8-3) 7:30 ABC: This is a big game for the Longhorns. A&M is already in the playoff, but Texas needs a win. Texas will have to find the defensive effort that helped them shut down OU. A&M QB Marcel Reed continues to impress and will be a big challenge to the Texas defense. A&M has diversified their running attack, but they are still heavily reliant on WRs KC Concepcion and Mario Craver. Those tow account for almost half of the receptions and almost 55% of the receiving yardage. UT will try to limit them and force other players to beat them. But man-to-man coverage is a risky proposition with Reed's ability to rip off explosive runs. Texas QB Arch Manning and the Longhorn pass attack will have to find some big plays. To do that the o-line will need to protect Manning against a fierce A&M pass rush. UT will also counter by moving the pocket and with quick WR screens that have netted some big plays to WR Ryan Wingo and others……..#25 Arizona (8-3) at #20 Arizona State (8-3) 9:00 FOX: The Territorial Cup is the oldest trophy game in college football. This is the 99th time these teams have competed for a trophy named the "Territorial Cup" because it was first awarded in 1899; over a decade before Arizona statehood in 1912.

3^rd Down: More Conference Intrigue: #13 Utah (9-2) at Kansas (5-6) FRIDAY 12:00 ESPN: Utah needs some help to get into the Big XII title game. They narrowly escaped against K-State last week when their normally stout defense was shredded on the ground for 472 yards on just 42 carries (that is not a typo). The Jayhawks have lost four of their last five games and will face a Ute team that will be hyper-focused after a near-upset last week……#5 Texas Tech (10-1) at West Virginia (4-7) 12:00 ESPN: A dominant Texas Tech defense will present major challenges to a WVU offense that has had trouble protecting their quarterback. But the last three weeks WVU has beaten #22 Houston and was a play away from beating current #20 Arizona State. This is a much taller peak to climb for the Mountaineers. As if the defense Texas Tech was not enough of a problem, their offense is among the top five nationally and can hurt you in a myriad of ways. The balanced attack has amassed over 3,100 yards in the air and over 2,100 yards on the ground……#12 Miami (9-2) at #22 Pitt (8-3) 12:00 ABC: Pitt & Miami both need help –Miami more so than Pitt. Pitt is pass-heavy on offense, but RB Ja'Kyrian Turner is an emerging potential star. He racked up 127 yards against Stanford and 200+ yards in the win at #16 Georgia Tech. The pivot point to watch will be how well Miami can protect QB Carson Beck. They’re among the best teams in the country in protecting the QB, but Pitt has a very good pass rush unit. They also get their hands on a lot of passes and have intercepted 14. If they can break the Canes’ pass pro and make plays in the secondary, the Panthers can win…..Virginia Tech (3-8) at #18 Virginia (9-2) 7:00 ESPN: Since Head Coach George Welsh retired at Virginia in 2000, Virginia Tech has won 21 of the last 23 meetings—including a 10-2 mark in Charlottesville. After getting knocked out of the Wake Forest game, UVA QB Chandler Morris returned to form in an important win over Duke throwing for 316 yards and 2 TDs. But he did throw 2 INTs, and he will need to avoid those mistakes to break the Tech curse over the Hoos. Providing balance for UVA has been RB J’Mari Taylor who has seen his production ramp up the last three weeks. He has 13 TDs on the ground this year to go with his 917 rushing yards. UVA LB Kam Robinson had a season-ending ACL injury against Duke, but the rest of the defense has proven adept at getting disruptive plays knocking passes away, making sacks and getting turnovers. If they can protect the ball and disrupt Tech's offense, UVA should get to the ACC title game with a win on Saturday…….#21 SMU (8-3) at Cal (6-5) 8:00 ESPN2: SMU is surging at the right time, and Cal is fading after an embarrassing 31-10 loss to Stanford that led to them firing their coach. For the Mustangs, it is win and they’re in the ACC title game for the 2^nd straight year. Note that SMU along with UVA are the two ACC teams in complete control of their own ACC destiny……Charlotte (1-10) at #24Tulane (9-2) 7:30 ESPNU: If Tulane is focused, they should win this one going away.

4th Down: SEC Rivalries and Finales: #14 Vanderbilt (9-2) at #19 Tennessee (8-3) 3:30 ESPN: Vandy needs help to edge into the playoffs. A win over Tennessee would be a nice reference on that resume. Tennessee is a high-powered/high-speed offense averaging 73 plays a game. The Vols are just one of 4 teams in the country with 3,000+ passing yards and 2,000+ rushing yards (Ole Miss, USF and Texas Tech are the others). With 1,917 yards rushing, Vandy is just 83 yards from being the 5^th team on that 3,000/2,000 list. With the balance both offenses throw at their opponents this one could be a highly entertaining shootout……#10 Alabama (9-2) at Auburn (5-6) 7:30 ABC: For Alabama a win gets them to the SEC title game against Georgia, a loss probably knocks them out of the playoff.  This year’s edition of the Iron Bowl features an unsettled coaching situation at Auburn. The Tide emphasized the run game last week which has been lacking this year. If they can establish balance on offense, they will control the tempo of this game and get the “W”. But as good as their passing attack has been they may still be able to win without a dominant run game…….LSU (7-4) at #8 Oklahoma (9-2) 3:30 ABC: LSU is another team with an interim head coach. What started as a promising season spiraled downward as the offense failed to meet expectations, particularly in the run game. Given the active pressure defense the Sooners like, a one-dimensional offense faces a long day….#9 Notre Dame (9-2) at Stanford (4-7) 10:30 ESPN: Notre Dame is surging. They have one of the largest point differentials in the country and the past three weeks have beaten Navy, Pitt and Syracuse by a total of 124 points. The offense has an explosive run game, an efficient pass game and an o-line that wears down a defense. The late season surge has been fueled by a defense that continues a rapid climb in performance. Stanford will hope to ride the momentum from a 31-10 win over Cal.......SEC/ACC In-State Rivalries: One of the visionary things the ACC and SEC has done is to preserve the in-state, non-conference rivalries. As the SEC goes to 9 conference games, one hopes they will find a way to keep these games……Kentucky (5-6) at Louisville (7-4) 12:00 ACC Network, Clemson (6-5) at South Carolina (4-7) 12:00 SEC Network and Florida State (5-6) at Florida (3-8) 4:30 ESPNU.

Big Ten Corner: Wisconsin (4-7) at Minnesota (6-5) 3:30 FS1: This rivalry game rewards the winner with a giant axe……UCLA (3-8) at #17 USC (8-3) 4:30 NBC: Can then Bruins recapture some of the midseason magic that got them 3 straight wins? USC has shown great improvement as a program this season. Finishing with a win here and a win in a bowl game to reach 10 wins would be a step in the right direction….Maryland (4-7) at Michigan State (3-8) Detroit 7:00 FS1: Both of these teams badly need a win in this one…….Northwestern (6-5) at Illinois (7-4) 7:30 FOX: Northwestern punched their ticket to a bowl game last week. Both of these teams are capable of limiting their opponent’s offense. Scoring figures to be at a premium. The key may be getting TDs in the red zone…….#6 Oregon (10-1) at Washington (8-3) 3:30 CBS: Both of these teams have dynamic, efficient QBs. The difference for the two offenses is the depth at RB for Oregon and the presence of Ducks’ TE Kenyon Saddiq. Saddiq has emerged as the #1 target while the Oregon WR corps has dealt with some injury problems. The Oregon defense will have to limit the big-play threats. Given their strength upfront they should be able to do a good enough job containing the Huskies. But there is enough explosive play talent at UW to win this one. Open-field tackling will be vitally important for both teams…….#1 Ohio State (11-0) at #15 Michigan (9-2) 12:00 FOX: This is the most heated rivalry in college football right now. There was a brawl in the team tunnel both teams share at Michigan Stadium & last year a flag-planting incident at Ohio Stadium ignited a post-game brawl. The last few years, Michigan has been the more physical team in their wins over OSU. Ryan Day and new defensive coordinator Matt Patricia have made stopping the run a high priority all year long. But few of the teams they’ve played have hung their hat as much on the run as the Wolverines. Michigan QB Bryce Underwood has grown immensely as the season has progressed, but will it be enough when facing the nation’s most dynamic defense? His mobility adds an "X factor" to the UM attack. The OSU run game has improved, but can it do enough damage to keep the Michigan defense off balance and slow the pressure packages. There is no doubt that an OSU offense with QB Julian Sayin in a rhythm will be tough to beat so look for UM to try to get after him. The health of OSU WRs Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith will be something to watch early in the game. Michigan may try to press those guys and take away the short routes and WR screen game that helps make Sayin the most efficient and accurate passer in the country. Watch for something in the special teams to potentially create momentum for one of these two teams.

Penn State Corner: Penn State (5-6) at Rutgers (5-6) 3:30 Big Ten Network: The Big Ten has 11 bowl-eligible teams. The winner of this game will be the 12^th. Given their location in the Northeast, it would appear that this may be a Pinstripe Bowl play-in game. The last three weeks, Penn State is playing like the fans expected them to before the season began. They’ve hammered the run game and Kaytron Allen has been a dominant back. That has opened up the play-action pass game resulting in more 20+ yard plays that are critical in long scoring drives. They face a Rutgers defense that has struggled to eliminate big plays, particularly in the run game. Pass rush has also been a problem for Rutgers as they’ve netted just 10 sacks all year. The defensive issues have been surprising, given their performance the past few years and given their experience (450+ combined career starts). Look for PSU to continue their run-first approach. As such expect Rutgers to get a lot of people around the ball and perhaps press and disrupt the PSU wide receivers and make them win through the air.

The best chance for Rutgers to win will have to be what they get done on offense and on special teams. Coach Greg Schiano likes surprises on special teams and given Penn State's heavy punt block rush, a fake may be there. The Rutgers offense is experienced upfront (180+ starts on the o-line) and is big on time of possession. That is a great way to help keep their defense off the field. They have 2 big WRs (#8 KJ Duff 6-5/ 225 and #9 Ian Strong 6-3/ 211) on the outside that thrive on making contested catches. Their third WR (#0 DT Sheffield) is smaller, but his quickness is a match-up issue as a slot receiver. Those three WRs have combined for 146 catches for 2,222 yards and 15 TDs. Overall, the run game has not been as big as years past, but RB Antwan Raymond has 1,052 yards and 12 TDs on the year. It all runs through QB Athan Kaliakmanis who can be a run threat as a red zone change up. While the PSU front has become more disruptive lately, watch for the secondary to challenge the Rutgers WRs on the outside. Against a very good Iowa defense, Rutgers was able to roll up 330 yards passing and 28 points. They will need that kind of effort to beat Penn State.

History--Know Your Opponent: When former Penn State assistant and New Jersey native Greg Schiano took over a struggling Rutgers program in 2001 they leaned heavily in on New Jersey pride. That included embracing the HBO series "The Sopranos", which was set in NJ and starred Rutgers alum James Gandolfini (one of the best actors of our time). That run led to national rankings, top 10 wins, lots of bowl wins and a new level of excitement. That led to perhaps the best college football promo ad in history. When Schiano returned to Rutgers a few years ago they rekindled the NJ ties. If you're in the stadium on Saturday, you'll see the pre-game video that continues to promote an unapologetic Jersey-tough attitude that links the team back to that same show. By the way, the game-day operations at Rutgers are run by Penn State alum PJ Mullen who has run Beaver Stadium gamedays, and runs game days for the Philadelphia Eagles. He is THE guy that created the "Mo Bamba" craze while he was Penn State.