4-Down Territory: CFP Quarterfinals Ring in the New Year with Big Games, Big Plays

Pre-Game Warm-ups: Notes: Opt Out Impact: A number of the bowl games we’ve seen have featured sloppy play in the first half followed by improved play in the second half. Why is that? Part of that is how opt-outs impact the performance of a team. These teams find out where they’re going and who they’re playing less than three weeks before they have to play the game. Then they have to navigate the slow drip of which players are opting out, which ones are entering the transfer portal and try to assemble a starting lineup with what they have left. That leads to uneven play initially. The teams winning bowl games this year are weathering the first half and making the right adjustments in the second half………Ducks Take Flight: Not to count the ducks before they’re hatched but should Oregon make a run to the National title game, it’s a good thing ducks can fly. Oregon has had great success on the road under Coach Dan Lanning. They’re 10-0 on the road and 11-1 away from Autzen Stadium since joining the Big Ten. That includes road wins at #3 Penn State, at #18 Iowa this year and a win in the Big Ten title game against #3 Penn State and a loss to #8 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl last year. To win it all this year they will need to be road warriors once again. After a home game against JMU, this week they head to the Orange Bowl in Miami (roughly 2,700 miles by air). If they keep winning, they head to the Peach Bowl in Atlanta and then back to Miami for the National title game. That would add up to 15,170 miles roundtrip for three straight games in the eastern time zone. That comes after a season that included games at Penn State, at Rutgers, at Northwestern, at Iowa and at Washington which totaled another 16,730 miles. All told with an appearance in the National Title game they’d have traveled 31,900 miles, and that is roughly 1.3 laps around the equator…….Off-Loading Content: For the first two years of the College Football Playoff, ESPN has off-loaded/sold two of the playoff games to be broadcast on TNT and streamed on HBO Max. It has proved prudent. ESPN picks off the two games they want and gave the 5 vs 12 seed and 6 vs 11 seed games to TNT. That meant the JMU/Oregon game (4.4 million viewers) and Ole Miss/Tulane (6.2 million viewers) were carried by TNT while Alabama/Oklahoma (14.9 million viewers) and Miami/Texas A&M (14.8 million viewers) were with ESPN/ABC. The off-loading of content may be a future trend. Next year NBC has the rights to the Big Ten title game. Even though that game drew 18.33 million viewers, that network has confirmed they are exploring a sale of the rights to another outlet or streaming service reportedly in the neighborhood of $70 million. Both NBC and CBS as part of their Big Ten deals have yet to consistently get the big games and big viewership they were expecting as Fox has dominated the Big Ten package…….It’s Not Only a Question of Resources: While a lot has been made about the resources that schools have to pay players, winning big is much deeper than that. Any fool with a checkbook can build an impressive roster, but it takes a true leader building a culture of consistent effort to transform that roster into a team. Coaches and fans are quick to point out that certain teams, like Ohio State last year, bought a championship. That is a disservice to the job that coaches have to do to get the players to commit to a championship intensity in all they do. This year Penn State committed massive resources to this year’s window of talented veteran players. After starting the season ranked #2 they slipped to a 7-6 finish, a finish made possible only because of a 4-game winning streak to end the season under interim coach Terry Smith. While Penn State’s administration is talking again about the resources they are allotting for new coach Matt Campbell, this team will rise or fall on the ethos that is established under his leadership. At the same time Virginia Tech is promoting their new allocation of resources for new coach James Franklin. If it was simply a matter of writing a check, anyone could win it all……..Trendlines: Want to make a run in the college football playoff? The old adage that defense wins championships still applies. 7 of the 8 teams left all rank among the top 13 defenses in the country in yardage allowed, and in scoring. The thinking used to be that a top-flight run game came next. Take a look at the teams left and only 2 of the 8 teams rank among the top 13 run offenses in the country (Indiana #10 and Oregon #13). College football, like the NFL, is now a quarterback-driven league. There are just three running backs left in the playoff that rank among the top 40 in the country. Conversely 6 of the starting QBs rank among the top 15 in pass efficiency and all 8 starters rank in the top 40 with Alabama’s Ty Simpson in last among the starters at #38. If you want to see why the Big Ten appears ascendant vis-à-vis the SEC look at the starting QBs. Seven of the Top 20 rated QBs are in the Big Ten including 3 of the top 4 (Julian Sayin OSU #1, Fernando Mendoza Indiana #2, Dante Moore Oregon #4). The SEC has just 3 QBs among the top 20. Further reinforcing the QB-driven narrative, as of Monday afternoon this week there were just 37 running backs in all of college football that have topped the 1,000-yard mark. And that is with many of them playing 12 and 13 games. Being a 1,000-yard rusher isn't as hard as it used to be, but they are becoming scarcer. Part of that is that many teams are using multiple backs and incorporating the QBs in the run game.

1^st Down: The Cotton Bowl: #2 Ohio State (12-1) vs #10 Miami (11-2) Wednesday 12/31 7:30 ESPN Arlington, TX: On offense, these two teams mirror each other. They start with the pass game and compliment them with run games that are middle of the pack nationally. These teams both like to control the time of possession as well with OSU ranking #5 nationally and Miami ranking 7^th. Considering that both Miami and Ohio State boast dominant run defenses, don’t expect either team to look to grind it out. With OSU offensive coordinator Brian Hartline getting ready to be the next head coach at USF, Head Coach Ryan Day has stated that he will assume the play-calling duties. That may mean more play-action passes and moving QB Julian Sayin out of the pocket more often. That is a good strategy against a Miami defense that thrives on pass rush (41 sacks #4 nationally) and turnovers. It is a similar disruptive approach that Indiana used to confound the Buckeyes in the red zone. Ohio State’s array of talented WRs presents one-on-one matchup problems. That means Miami will have to get to the QB to disrupt the pass game rhythm. As for Miami, their QB Carson Beck has seen this stage before, but only from the sidelines as he was injured and sat out when his Georgia team played Notre Dame in the playoffs last year. The key for him has been protecting the football. 6 of the 10 INTs he threw this year came in the losses to Louisville and SMU. The Buckeyes are not big on getting turnovers but they have All-Americans on the d-line, linebacking corps and in the secondary. That is why they only yield a nation’s best 8.15 points per game, 213.5 yards per game and just 3.94 yards per play. Ohio State’s defense has thrived utilizing complex schemes and the extra few days getting ready will help. Ohio State has had a long layoff to add some new wrinkles. Miami’s electric playmaker Malachi Toney may make his biggest impact should that Hurricane defense force some punts. In addition to his role receiving and running the football, he is one of the nation’s best punt returners. Keep an eye on 3^rd downs and Red Zone. Both of these teams do a great job on 3^rd downs and 4^th downs offensively. But they both do well in those situations on defense too. The most critical part of the field may be the Red Zone where the OSU defense is #1 allowing points just 2/3 of the time and allowing the opponents to get in the end zone just 8 times in 24 tries.

2^nd Down: The Orange Bowl: #4 Texas Tech (12-1) vs #5 Oregon (12-1) Thursday 1/1 12:00 ESPN Miami Gardens, FL: Cynics and critics may scoff at these teams and mention their “resources” as though they doled out money to get here. That is an insult to the job Oregon Coach Dan Lanning and Texas Tech Coach Joey McGuire have done building teams that compete hard every weekend. Oregon has a reputation for flashy uniforms, but don’t let that fool you. They want to run the ball and be physical. QB Dante Moore is one of the nation’s best, the WR corps is healthy again with the dangerous Dakorien Moore back, and tight end Kenyon Sadiq remaining a big-time threat. When the WR corps was thin, Oregon became more reliant on more 12 personnel (2 TEs, 2 WRs & 1 RB) on offense. That fed the heart of this offense; the trio of RBs in speedy Noah Whittington (798 yards, 6.9 YPC), bruiser Jordon Davison (625 yards, 6.4 YPC) and versatile Dierre Hill (557 yards 8.6 YPC). They drive an offense that averages 7.25 yards per play (3^rd nationally), and 5.9 yards per rush (#2 nationally). So how did Indiana stop these guys? They created chaos getting 6 sacks and 2 turnovers and held Oregon to 3/14 on 3^rd downs. They disrupted the big play machinery allowing just 2 plays of 20+ yards. That is exactly how Texas Tech loves to play the game. They lead the country with 31 turnovers. They are a top 10 pass rush unit and, like Ohio State, have all-stars at every level of their defense. David Bailey has 13.5 sacks; LB Jacob Rodriguez won the Butkus Award and makes plays all over the field. CB Brice Pollock has good size and has snagged 5 INTs. Getting the ball out quickly and the off-speed run game and the screen game helps. On offense, Texas Tech likes to run a lot of plays. They are the #2 scoring offense in the country and have thrived creating points after turnovers. QB Behren Morton has protected the football and avoided turnovers, but opposing defenses have been able to get sacks. The Red Raiders have a potent one-two punch at running back with Cameron Dickey (1,095 yards 5.5 ypc) and J’Koby Williams (787 yards 5.5 ypc) leading the charge. They are both very active in the pass game combining for 54 catches. Like Oregon Tech has 3 dangerous WRs and a real matchup threat at tight end. Oregon has gotten better and better all year on defense and is a top 10 unit nationally. Some of the teams that have had success have tried to test the Ducks’ depth upfront by going fast on offense. These teams have one common opponent: Oregon State. Both won by similar scores with Oregon winning 41-7 and Texas Tech winning 45-14.

3^rd Down: The Rose Bowl: #1 Indiana (13-0) vs #8 Alabama (11-3) Thursday 1/1 4:00 Pasadena, CA: How many times can people underestimate Indiana’s ability to perform on the biggest stage? Certainly the IU resume is the best in the country. They won on the road at current #5 Oregon and in the Big Ten Title game against #1 (and now current #2) Ohio State. And they won road games at Iowa and against a Penn State team that played their best game of the season. Their defense is talented and aggressive. In those two wins over Top 5 opponents they got turnovers, got to the quarterback and made life miserable. They face an Alabama offense that is one-dimensional and leans heavily on the pass game. Indiana had limited teams to under 180 yards passing per game and is 6^th nationally in sacks. They get your offense off schedule because they are great at getting tackles for loss (2^nd nationally). They give opposing quarterbacks and offensive a lot to think about by stunting and moving their athletic defensive linemen after the snap. Alabama has a great group of receivers but getting time to push the ball downfield will be the challenge. And when you get to the Red Zone against this defense it has been nearly impossible to get touchdowns. Opponents have scored just 6 TDs in 22 red zone trips against the Hoosier defense. As for the Alabama defense, they face one of the nation’s most balanced offenses. The #3 scoring offense also ranks #8 in total offense because they average 252 yards a game passing and are #10 nationally in rushing at 221 yards per game. Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza has proven to be a clutch late-game performer. They don’t turn the ball over having lost just 1 fumble all year and committing just 8 turnovers in 13 games. Alabama’s defensive unit has come up big at times this year. They will have to limit big plays by slowing down Indiana’s receiving corps which is now back at full health. And they'll have to do that while contending with a physical run game. Also keep an eye on IU when Alabama punts the ball, the Hoosier’s Jonathan Brady is a real threat every time he fields a punt.

4^th Down: The Sugar Bowl: #3 Georgia (12-1) vs #6 Ole Miss (12-1) Thursday 1/1 8:00 New Orleans, LA: For Ole Miss this game is a 2^nd-straight rematch after rolling over Tulane in the first round. As a quick reminder, on Saturday October 18^th Ole Miss came into Georgia and took a 9-point lead with 4:12 left in the 4^th quarter. Then something changed. In the first 41 minutes Ole Miss had 338 yards of offense, was 5/6 on 3^rd downs and QB Trinidad Chambliss hit 19 of 26 passes for 263 yards. In the last 19 minutes Ole Miss gained just 13 yards on 4 possessions, went 0/3 on 3^rd downs, 0/1 on 4^th down and Chambliss was 0 for 10 passing. Meanwhile Georgia’s offense had 208 yards (111 rushing and 97 passing) and 17 points on 3 possessions. Part of the change was QB Gunner Stockton running the ball 7 times and hitting 7 of 7 passes for 97 yards and 2 TDs in that stretch. But that was then. Of all the teams left, Ole Miss is the one whose defense lags the others statistically. That being said they rank in the top 3rd of the country in most categories. This team has relied on explosive offense. QB Trinidad Chambliss is a dual threat with 500+ rushing yards to go along with his nearly 3,300 passing yards. RB Kewan Lacy has 1,366 yards and 21 TDs. And the receiving corps is explosive and has great depth. They have a Trey (Wallace) and a Deuce (Alexander) to go with De’Zhaun Stribling, Cayden Lee and tight end Dae’Quan Wright. All of these guys have 500+ yards receiving on the year. To slow these guys down, UGA will have to take away the run game as they did in the first matchup. They are one of the nation’s best in that department. On offense, George had one of their best days running the ball against Ole Miss. This is not the dominant run-first approach the Bulldogs have had in the past, but the mix of RBs and the wildcard of QB Gunner Stockton getting into the mix will put stress on the Rebels’ defense that must contend with USC Transfer WR Zachariah Branch. Georgia finds a lot of ways to get him the ball. Where this game may swing is in time of possession. Ole Miss is the only playoff team left that averaged under 30 minutes of possession per game and Georgia ranks 3^rd nationally.