4-Down Territory: Championship Weekend offers Playoff Intrigue & Rematches Galore

It is conference championship weekend and there is serious intrigue as we head into the last days before the payoff field is set. The Friday night slate holds playoff possibilities that may not be decided until the ACC title game concludes Saturday after 11 pm. If you like sequels this is your weekend. The Mountain West, ACC, Big XII and SEC title games all feature rematches. The first round of the FCS playoffs also has two rematches.

First Down: Friday Night Action: The Mountain West Championship Game UNLV (10-2) at Boise State (8-4) 8:00 FOX: These two teams played earlier this year, and a 21-0 Boise State third quarter blew the game open. The past few weeks the UNLV defense has improved but will it be enough? There was over 1,000 yards of offense in that game but one of the differences was Boise State’s ability to get defensive stops on third down…… The Sun Belt Championship Game: Troy (8-4) at #25 James Madison (11-1) 7:00 ESPN: The first post-season match-up between Troy and JMU happened in the first round of the NCAA 1-AA playoffs in 1994. JMU rolled to a big win that day. Given that Troy is limping into this game going 2-2 down the stretch, JMU may repeat that result. JMU will need to win handily to impress the playoff committee and jump the AAC Champion. Or they will need Duke to beat UVA……The American Championship Game: #24 North Texas (11-1) at #20 Tulane (10-2) 8:00 ABC: Given that both teams are ranked, the winner of this game is likely going to be the 1^st non-power 4 champion in the field. Both head coaches are off to new jobs after the season but will coach their teams the rest of the way. North Texas QB Drew Mestemaker leads the country with over 3,800 passing yards while tossing 29 TDs against just 4 INTs. As a team they lead the nation in scoring. Tulane has wins over Northwestern and Duke and has relied on BYU transfer QB Jake Retzlaff who can throw and has also racked up 500+ yards on the ground. The question for Tulane will be how they stop UNT’s well-balanced offense. One answer may be getting turnovers, where Tulane has done well all year.

Second Down: ACC & Big XII: The ACC Championship Game: Duke (7-5) vs #17 Virginia (10-2) Charlotte, NC 8:00 ABC: A tie-breaker system that is more complex than rocket science put Duke in this game ahead of four other ACC teams with 6-2 conference records. Is it poetic justice that Duke Head Coach Manny Diaz kept his former team Miami from the conference title game? A Duke win puts the ACC in jeopardy of being out of the playoff completely. The players to watch in this game are UVA QB Chandler Morris and RB J’Mari Taylor who had big games against Duke earlier this year. Taylor has been used in a number of direct snap plays. Manny Diaz made his rep as a defensive coordinator and no doubt he’ll have some changes up his sleeve to improve his team’s performance from their first meeting. On offense Duke faces a UVA defense that has had some injury problems at LB. Controlling the tempo on offense could be part of the recipe for Duke to keep their defense off the field. In the first meeting 3^rd down conversions proved critical as UVA converted 12 of 19 third downs while Duke managed just 4 conversions on 15 tries…….#11 BYU (11-1) at #4 Texas Tech (11-1) Arlington, TX 12:00 ABC: In the last game Texas Tech made a statement 29-7 win over BYU. BYU lost the key plays with a -3 turnover margin in that game and converted just 3 of 14 third downs. The BYU defense slowed one of the nation’s most explosive offenses down holding the Red Raiders well below their season average. As dangerous as the Tech offense is, their defense is also one of the top units in the country. BYU QB Bear Bachmeier had a rough day against that defense which held the Cougars to 7 points and just 255 yards. A big part of their problem was contending with Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez who racked up 14 stops in that win. While media pushes offensive players for Heisman voting, Rodriguez would be a worthy name to put on that ballot. For BYU, getting RB LJ Martin going in the running game would be a big help. And The Cougars have an active LB of their own in Jack Kelly who has racked up 9 sacks. Pressure will be key to slowing Texas Tech.

Third Down: It Just Means...Not Quite as Much as The Big Ten Game: The SEC Championship Game: #3 Georgia (11-1) vs Alabama (10-2) 4:00 ABC: Notre Dame, Texas, Vanderbilt and others are rooting for a Georgia win that could knock Alabama from the playoff field. Or does it? Will the committee punish Alabama for a third loss in a conference title game? Tide fans would rather not find out. It is yet another rematch. Alabama eked out a 24-21 win that was all about time of possession for the Tide. They controlled the ball for over 35 minutes including the last 3:19 of the when the Bulldogs could not get a stop. Georgia ran just 53 plays in the whole game. But that was back in week 4. UGA QB Gunner Stockton has dramatically improved from the guy who could muster just 130 yards in the air in that game. The entire Georgia offense is much better eight games later. But they did struggle to move the ball in their last game against Georgia Tech. Alabama has been searching for a balanced offense all year but they too struggled last week managing just 280 yards in a close win over Auburn. This looks like a physical slugfest with defenses making the offenses really earn their points. Both Georgia Coach Kirby Smart and Alabama Coach Kalen DeBoer thrive in the big game matchups. This game, like many evenly matched big games, may swing on a single turnover or kicking play. Watch for something tricky from UGA (i.e. surprise onside kick vs Texas).

Fourth Down: This Actually Just Means More: The Big Ten Championship Game: #1 Ohio State (12-0) vs #2 Indiana (12-0) Indianapolis, IN 8:00 FOX: This is the game that just means more. The cheapest on-line tickets are $650 while just $217 will get you into the SEC title game. The winner of this one will be the #1 playoff seed. The loser probably falls to #2 and certainly no lower than #3. But at least we will be entertained. Ohio State QB Julian Sayin and IU QB Fernando Mendoza are #1 and #2 nationally in passing efficiency. This game could swing Heisman voters to one over the other.

There are just 12 power-4 teams with over 3,000 yards passing and 2,000 yards rushing and OSU & IU are both on that list. On defense, Ohio State is the nation’s best defense while Indiana ranks 4^th. IU has snared 24 turnovers and made 34 sacks, but OSU can get the ball out quickly on pass plays. OSU’s defense is also disruptive and throws complex looks at you. And as for field goals, IU’s kicker is 13 for 13 and OSU’s kicker is 15 for 17.

OSU has yet to trail in the 4^th quarter all year. Meanwhile, IU QB Fernando Mendoza has made several key 4^th quarter TD passes to beat Iowa, Oregon and Penn State. After fits and starts with the run game all year, the Buckeyes have found a consistent run game late in the year. That means you have to choose between covering a dangerous trio of WRs or stopping the run.

It is hard to find weaknesses on either side. The star players will have to excel. That may give a slight advantage to OSU with top-tier talent at DT, LB, safety and corner. But do not underestimate the IU guys. Many people laughed when Coach Curt Cignetti showed up with a swagger at IU. No one is laughing now. They went on the road to Oregon and made life miserable for an Oregon offense that is similar in approach to Ohio State. The key was stopping the Ducks’ run game and getting 6 sacks. If they can play at that level Saturday night they could wake up as the #1 team in the country for the first time in school history.

Fifth Down: The Playoffs have Already Started: It is week two of the FCS playoffs and here is the slate of games. By way of reference the Missouri Valley Conference is like the SEC of FCS. South Dakota, Illinois State, North Dakota State, North Dakota and South Dakota State from that league make up 5 of the 16 remaining teams.

#12 Villanova (10-2) at #5 Lehigh (12-0) 12:00 ESPN+: This is the shortest road trip of the weekend is an in-state/Keystone State matchup.

#11 South Dakota (9-4) at #6 Mercer (9-2) 12:00 ESPN+: SD heads south to Macon, GA hoping their fortunes turn north.

Illinois State (9-4) at #1 North Dakota State (12-0) 1:00 ESPN+: A rematch of a 33-16 win by NDSU.

North Dakota (8-5) at #4 Tarleton State (11-1) 1:00 ESPN+

Yale (9-2) at #2 Montana State (10-2) 2:00 ESPN+: An epic comeback at Youngstown State earned Yale a trip to Big Sky country.

#14 South Dakota State (9-4) at #3 Montana (11-1) 2:00 ESPN+: Griz hoping to get a rematch vs Montana State, but this is the first of two steps they need to make.

#10 Abilene Christian (9-4) at #7 Stephen F Austin (10-2) 2:00 ESPN+: The second in-state matchup is a Lone Star special rematch of a week two 28-20 win by Abilene Christian.

#9 Rhode Island (11-2) at #8 UC Davis (8-3) 10:00 ESPN: A monster road trip & late-night kickoff will make for a steep challenge for the Rams.