4-Down Territory: Big SEC Doubleheader, More Key Conference Games & PSU Competes for the Ugliest Trophy in Sports

Three Weeks to Go: With just three weeks to go we get into the scoreboard watching season for the conference and playoff chase. We’ve come a long way from the days waiting for the scoreboard announcer to read off “In Scores of Other Games…..” Now we can be at one game while keeping one eye watching another on the phone. Or we can be at home with a tablet, laptop, smartphone and a TV that can split screen 4 ways. You just have to know which games fall into which broadcast windows. What follows is a breakdown by broadcast window, with the biggest games of the weekend at the end.

Also Penn State and Michigan State square off the the Land Grant Trophy which should be named "The Ugly Baby Trophy" because it is one of those babies that only a mother could love. And I say that as one ugly baby myself........Seriously only a mother could love that baby. More on that game later.

Friday Night: Clemson (4-5) at #20 Louisville (7-2) 7:30 ESPN: Clemson is not as far off as you might think. They have 3 one-score losses. For Louisville, dynamic RB Isaac Brown missed last week and may still be out, but RB Keyjuan Brown has stepped up and averages 6.9 yards per carry. The Louisville defense will need to do a better job against Clemson QB Cade Klubnik than they did against Cal’s pass attack last week……Minnesota (6-3) at #8 Oregon (8-1) 9:00 FOX: Oregon has learned to play the game that is needed each week. They took on a physical run-game mentality to run the ball and win on a miserable rainy day in Iowa City. The health of the Ducks’ WR corps will be important Friday night and down the stretch.

1st Down: The Noon Window: #18 Michigan (7-2) at Northwestern (5-4) at Wrigley Field 12:00 FOX: The Wolverines have quietly gone about their business and now find themselves in the hunt for a Big Ten title game berth and the College Football playoff. Not bad for a team everyone thought was still a year away from contention. Northwestern likes to win ugly. Their goal is to dirty up the game and make offenses be patient and wait for a mistake. Michigan’s run first approach is made to be patient and wait for the big play……Wisconsin (3-6) at #2 Indiana (10-0) 12:00 Big Ten Network: The Badgers picked up a big win last week, but the concerns about their pass game remain. An active IU secondary promises to keep making that a problem. Indiana was missing several key players last week on the o-line and in the receiving corps. This is the time of year when the health of your team is vital and can expose the depth of talent on your roster. But given the advantage that IU QB Fernando presents, the Hoosiers look like they will take care of business at home……South Carolina (3-6) at #3 Texas A&M (9-0) ESPN: The Texas A&M running game has become less and less reliant on QB runs from Marcel Reed (he had just 5 carries last week) and is getting great production from the RBs. That allows Reed to focus on getting the ball to explosive WRs Mario Craver and KC Concepcion. They aren’t tall (5-11 and 5-9) but they have combined for 1404 yards and 12 TDs on 86 catches. A gaudy average of 16.3 yards per catch. The Gamecocks have competed hard, but their 6 losses have come against 5 ranked teams and to Vanderbilt before they were ranked. They had Alabama on the ropes. But can they contend with a relentless A&M pass rush and summon a great effort to pull the upset?.........Arizona (6-3) at #25 Cincinnati (7-2) 12:00 FS1: The Bearcats have had 2 weeks to get back from a big loss at Utah. Arizona is two plays from being on 5-game win streak and their QB Noah Fifita remains a dangerous player that could lead an upset charge…..#24 USF (7-2) at Navy (7-2) 12:00 ESPN2: USF remains in the hunt for the conference title and maybe more. They have a dynamic balanced offense that racks up 42 points per game. To counter that expect Navy to lean on the nation’s leading run offense and hold onto the ball and win the time of possession battle.

2nd Down: The 3:30 Window: UCF (4-5) at #6 Texas Tech (9-1) 3:30 FOX: Texas Tech handled previously unbeaten BYU last week. They displayed their dominant defense and top 10 offense. LB Jacob Rodriguez continued his sideline-to-sideline relentless play in a season where he’s racked up 91 tackles, a sack, forced 7 fumbles and picked off 3 passes. Do not underestimate Tech's one-two punch of RBs Cameron Dickey (867 yards/11 TDs) and J’Koby Williams (602 yards/5 TDs). All this balance and speed on both sides of the ball spell big trouble for UCF….#19 Virginia (8-2) at Duke (5-4) 3:30 ESPN2: UVA’s offense disappeared after an injury on to QB Chandler Morris early in the game in a loss to Wake Forest. He returned to some practice activities on Wednesday and his status on Saturday will be critical. The Hoos are still atop the ACC standings and Duke appears to be the last big challenge on the schedule. Duke fell to UConn last week and despite their overall 5-4 record they are still one of 5 one-loss teams in the ACC hunt. This game may pivot on UVA’s ability to attack Duke’s defense which has struggled to slow opponents down in recent weeks……#16 Georgia Tech (8-1) at Boston College (1-9) 3:30 The ACC Network: After an off week to regroup from their first loss of the season, watch for Tech to rebound against the Eagles…….NC State (5-4) at #15 Miami (7-2) 3:30 ESPN: For Miami this year’s games seem to come down to how sharp they are with QB Carson Beck and how well they protect the ball. NC State’s offense was without RB Hollywood Smothers but still racked up 500+ yards of offense in their upset of Georgia Tech. The ‘Canes will need to be sharp on defense to bring home a win and stay alive in the ACC race…….New Mexico State (3-6) at #23 Tennessee (6-3) 4:15 SEC Network: Tennessee throws the ball all over the yard and scores a lot of points. It is doubtful that New Mexico State will be able to keep up……Appalachian State (4-5) at JMU (8-1) 3:30 ESPN+: JMU is ranked in the AP Poll and looks to keep rolling. The QB of the 1994 National 1-AA quarterfinal team and Indianapolis Colts draft pick Mike Cawley is the honorary captain for JMU.

3^rd Down: Primetime: UCLA (3-6) at #1 Ohio State (9-0) 7:30 NBC: If there is an inconsistency that could pose problems for OSU it is the offensive line and run game. As the gales of November roll in they may need that run game to beat Michigan. This week against UCLA and next week against Rutgers provide two more opportunities to improve. UCLA's defense likes to press the opponent’s WRs. That may be problematic against the Buckeyes. On offense the creativity of coordinator Jerry Neuheisel will be tested by a physically dominant defense that throws a lot of variations at opponents. UCLA may think about some tempo offense to limit OSU’s ability to disguise coverages and confuse their offense…….Florida (3-6) at #7 Ole Miss (9-1) 7:00 ESPN: The interim coach at Florida was asked this week if Lane Kiffin would be a good fit at Florida. I’ve heard some doozy questions at press conferences but that is an all-timer. The more important question is if the Florida defense that slowed down Georgia and beat Texas and Mississippi State is the one that shows up Saturday. They have shown the ability to be physical and disruptive. Ole Miss throws a lot of weapons at the defense and open-field tackling is vital for anyone playing them……#13 Utah (7-2) at Baylor (5-4) 7:00 ESPN2: Utah is sitting at #13 with three games to go. They probably can’t make the Big 12 title game, but a 10-2 record just might be good enough to get an at-large berth. But they will have to take care of business in convincing ways to make their case to the committee……TCU (6-3) at #12 BYU (8-1) 10:15 ESPN: BYU is playing to get a rematch with Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game. They'll need to contain TCU QB Josh Hoover who racks up nearly 300 yards passing per game. To do that, they will also need to get the right matchup on TCU WR Eric McAlister who is a big guy who makes big plays.

4th Down: The Biggest Games: Lucky for us there are Top 25 matchups in all three broadcast windows so make sure your biggest screen is set to one of these games......#9 Notre Dame (7-2) at #22 Pitt (7-2) 12:00 ABC: It may surprise you to know that Pitt and Notre Dame have played 72 times over the years. As a kid I remember watching these teams play, often in the bitter cold of November. The Irish may have a big lead in the series, but it was the 1975 303-yard game by Pitt RB Tony Dorsett that set the stage for a 14-1 run the next 15 games (the only loss being to Penn State) and a 12-0 National title season in 1976. Freshman QBs have transformed these two teams. Pitt’s Mason Heintschel ranks in the top 40 in pass efficiency and since being named Pitt’s starter 5 weeks ago the Panthers are 5-0 and are averaging 40 points per game. But Notre Dame is a much tougher test. After starting the season slow, the Irish defense has allowed just 71 points in their last 6 games (they allowed 98 in their first 3 games including 30 to Purdue). They have grabbed 16 INTs, the 3^rd -best number nationally. For Notre Dame their freshman QB CJ Carr ranks 3^rd nationally in pass efficiency. But he faces a defense that likes to shut down the run (3^rd in run defense) and pressure the quarterback. This will be the best rushing attack Pitt has played all year……..#21 Iowa (6-3) at #17 USC (7-2) 3:30 Big Ten Network: A nasty weather day in Iowa City may have helped the Hawkeyes slow down the Oregon offense, but they also slowed down Indiana’s offense on a beautiful weather day. USC leaned heavily on the run last weekend, much like Oregon did against Iowa. The Trojans may find it to their advantage to lean on the run as well against an Iowa defense that likes to muck up opponents' offenses. Iowa’s offense has the dynamic of mobile QB Mark Gronowski. He's a big strong runner who moves the chains and scores in the red zone. And as everyone knows when you play Iowa, you’d better be ready for play-action passes and you’d better cover the tight ends. This game amounts to what is essentially a three-game playoff for USC to make the playoff with games against Iowa, at #8 Oregon and UCLA. And if the chips fall the right way they could find themselves in the Big Ten title game…..#11 Oklahoma (7-2) at #4 Alabama (8-1) 3:30 ABC: The hyperactive Oklahoma defense meets the speed and precision of Alabama’s pass attack that has racked up 25 TDs against just 1 interception. The Sooner defense thrives on disrupting drives making negative plays. They’re 3^rd nationally with 33 sacks and 1^st with 97 tackles for loss. Alabama still seeks some balance offensively as the running game continues to be lacking. Oklahoma also needs some help from the run game. The play of the quarterbacks will be critical. Alabama’s Ty Simpson has an accomplished WR corps to make big plays. OU’s John Mateer has been less efficient through the air but adds the threat of running to his game. If the defenses make this a game where field goals are a major factor OU’s Tate Sandell has hit 18/19 and is 6/6 from beyond 50 yards. Alabama’s Conor Talty is just 11/16 on the year and lacks the range of his OU counterpart. Keep an eye on that as the game unfolds…..#10 Texas (7-2) at #5 Georgia (8-1) 7:30 ABC: The Alabama/OU matchup followed by the Texas/Georgia matchup are the kinds of games that the SEC dreamed about when they added OU & Texas. Longhorn QB Arch Manning is coming off his two best games of the season in wins at Mississippi State and over #9 Vanderbilt with 674 yards and 6 TDs. That has been fueled by an emerging WR corps. Ryan Wingo racked up 273 yards on just 7 catches, DeAndre Moore grabbed 9 passes, and Emmett Mosley had 11 catches and 3 TDs. They will need that kind of production this week. Like OU, the Texas defense also looks to disrupt. They have a nation’s best 34 sacks and rank in the Top 20 in tackles for loss and have grabbed 15 turnovers. They play aggressively on the outside and will pressure the UGA WRs who will need to make some plays downfield. UGA QB Gunner Stockton has been helped the last 3 weeks with a renewed run game that has seen its per game production jump by nearly 20%. That balance has been key. If there is a wildcard to watch it is in the special teams. Texas has an electric return man in Ryan Niblett who leads the nation in punt returns averaging 24.7 per return. He can break open a game at any moment. This one promises to be a game where all three phases play an important role.

Big Ten/Penn State Corner: Maryland (4-5) at Illinois (6-3) 3:30 FS1: Maryland is in desperate need of a win to try to get bowl eligible. Last week Rutgers was able to run the ball effectively against them. Given Illinois’ love of running the ball it could spell trouble. Illinois QB Luke Altmyer is having a very good year, but the Terps’ defense has snared the 2^nd-highest number of INTs in the country. Maryland freshman QB Malik Washington could get a hot hand and drive an upset……..Purdue (2-8) at Washington (6-3) 7:00 FS1: Washington is back to the drawing board after a loss at Wisconsin. Purdue may be winless in the Big Ten, but they had one-score losses against Minnesota, Rutgers and Michigan. If the Huskies aren’t sharp, they could be in for an interesting night.

Penn State (3-6) at Michigan State (3-6) 3:30 CBS: Penn State showed a more developed play-action pass game against Indiana that was a new wrinkle and put the IU Linebackers in a bind. You can see in the pass distribution charts below. While PSU continues to throw a lot of short passes and a number of them behind the line on RB and WR screens there were more inside intermediate routes against Indiana. Expect that approach to continue this week. On offense MSU has a dangerous WR group and two solid tight ends. Their best outing of the year came in their last game in a 23-20 OT loss at Minnesota. They racked up 450+ yards of offense. But two missed field goals and a pass interference call against the Gophers that was waved off in OT cost them the win. They improved by making a change at QB and went with Alessio Milivojevic who made his first start and hit 20 of 28 passes for 311 yards. He was sacked 7 times so look for the Spartans to move the pocket and get the ball out quickly against Penn State. MSU’s o-line lineups have been like musical chairs with injuries and moves creating 8 different starting combinations in 9 games. Penn State’s offense should be able to establish the run game against a team that ranks 114^th in scoring defense and 68^th in total defense. If they can get the run going that same play-action pass game that netted several 20+ yard gains should be there again.

History: This will be the 29^th meeting between these schools where the Land Grant Trophy is up for grabs. Penn State has an 18-10 edge in Land Grant games including a 13-5 mark under Joe Paterno. The teams have split the last 10 games. From 1993 through 2010 these two teams met as the season finale game, and it made for some great drama. During that 18-game stretch 8 of the games were one-score games. One game that was not close was in 2002. RB Larry Johnson entered the game needing 264 yards to get to 2,000 yards in the season. Around the stadium fans were tracking his yardage in the first half. Late in the 2^nd quarter he’d already amassed 240 yards and 3 TDs and it wasn’t even halftime. Penn State lined up in an “I” formation on the Michigan State 39 yards line. Everyone in the stadium was well aware of the math. A TD run would do it. As Zack Mills pitched the ball to Johnson a hole opened on the left side with nothing but green grass ahead. Flashbulbs exploded all over the stadium unlike anything anyone could remember. He’d broken through to became just the 9^th 2,000 yard rusher in NCAA history and he did it in just 12 games (and amassed the last 279 yards in under 2 quarters). Also noteworthy: LJ also caught 41 passes for 3 more TDs and another 349 yards. Check out the highlights here: