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Four Down Territory: Get Ready for the Expanded Playoff Argument, Keys To Big Match-Ups This Weekend

The Four-Team Playoff: By 12:01 a.m. Sunday morning, if the favorites all win on Saturday (or if the favorites win and Alabama loses) the drumbeat from the “everyone gets a trophy sect” of the College Football Playoff cult will be all over social media with 6-team, 8-team and 16-team plans ready to go. But a quick look at the 4 previous years proves a couple of things:

First Down: First Seed Failures: The Playoff committee “Eye-Test” needs a seeing eye dog. The top seed has never won the National Championship, but the 4-seed has won it twice and the 2-seed has won it twice.

Record National Titles

1-seed 2-4 0

2-seed 5-2 2

3-seed 1-4 0

4-seed 4-2 2

Second Down: The Semifinals Have Been Mostly Mismatches: In 8 semi-final games the average margin of victory is 22 points and only 2 of the 8 semifinal games have been one-score games (2014 Ohio State by 7 over Alabama and 2017 Georgia by 6 in OT over Oklahoma). The next closest semifinal was the 2016 season when Alabama beat Washington by 17. Given that information does anyone really believe that expanding the playoffs will give us better match-ups?

Third Down: But What About The 5th Seed That Just Misses?: In the four years of the playoff the 5th seed has lost their bowl game to a lower-seeded team every year but one--last year when 2-loss Ohio State beat USC in the Cotton Bowl. It is hard to make a case that a 5-seed should be in the playoff when they’re 1-3 against lower seeded teams.

Fourth Down: The Best Match-Ups: #1 Alabama vs #4 Georgia for the SEC Championship. No surprise her