4-Down Territory: Fans May Not Be Buying It Up, But Conference Title Games Loom Large

It’s conference championship weekend, a weekend that has seemed to lose some luster given the 12-team playoff format. Fans don't seem to be buying it up......Don’t believe me…..the ticket prices tell the tale. Thursday afternoon you could get into the Power-4 Conference Title games for the following prices:

SEC                 $114

Big 12             $  44

ACC                $  42

The Big Ten   $  20

Twenty bucks to get into a Big Ten Title game between #1 Oregon and #3 Penn State? Even the SEC price is low, not Big Ten low, but low for a game in Atlanta between Georgia and Texas.....

Friday Night Warm-ups: #20 UNLV (10-2) at #10 Boise State (11-1) 8:00 FOX: Do you remember when UNLV’s starting QB left the program in September over and NIL money dispute? No one does, because Hajj-Malik Williams took over by passing for more than 1700 yards, running for over 700 yards and racking up 26 total TDs. He will proved a dynamic threat to Boise State’s playoff hopes. This is also a final showcase primetime game on FOX for Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty as we head into the final days of Heisman Voting. The winner of this would seem to have the inside track on that non-Power-4 slot. A win by Boise State would seem to give them the inside track on a first-round bye…….Tulane (9-3) at #24 Army (10-1) 8:00 ABC: Army is one of the great stories of this college football season. Army QB Bryson Daily has 860 yards passing and 1348 yards rushing. His 25 rushing TDs are the best in the country for a QB. Tulane comes in off an upset to Memphis last week. The story for the Green Wave has been a defense that is stingy giving up points, but Army is a different type of test.

First Down: The Big 12: Iowa State (10-2) vs #15 Arizona State (10-2) 12:00 ABC Arlington, TX: The Big 12 finally sorted things out after starting last weekend with nine different teams having a shot to be in this game. While most of the country was focused on Colorado, these two teams punched their ticket. ASU may be one of the hottest teams in the country right now with 5 straight wins by over 92 points. RB Cam Skattebo has racked up 540 yards in his last four games and sparked a Sun Devil revival. The Sun Devils have also won by gaining extra possessions. For the season they are a gaudy +11 in turnover margin. For Iowa State, keep an eye of their WR tandem of Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Both have over 1,000 yards receiving on the season –the only teammates in the country with over 1,000 receiving yards. If UNLV upsets Boise the winner of this game might grab that #4 seed and a bye. If not, they look like a 12-seed lock.

Second Down: The ACC: #17 Clemson (9-3) vs #8 SMU (11-1) 8:00 ABC Charlotte, NC: The Tigers have one shot to get into the playoff and that is to win. A 4th-quarter loss to South Carolina put them on the edge. SMU has taken the ACC by storm, but they are still one step from the ultimate goal. SMU QB Ken Jennings has sparked a balanced attack for the Mustangs. But they’ve also thrived because of a defense that disrupts opponents by sacking the QB and forcing turnovers. 28 of their 37 sacks have been generated by their d-line and d-ends, so look for them to try to get pressure with the front four. Clemson is a mystery, playing well at times, stumbling at others and finishing with a 9-3 record against a rather pedestrian schedule.

Third Down: The SEC: #5 Georgia (10-2) vs #2 Texas (11-1) 4:00 ABC Atlanta, GA: Georgia’s finest moment this season was in Austin when they beat Texas on the strength of a wildly effective pass rush that dominated the Texas offense. Can they repeat that feat again? They certainly won’t catch the Longhorns by surprise this time. Both defenses dominated in that game with neither team able to crack 300 yards of total offense and combining for 7 turnovers (UGA 3 & Texas 4). Watch for both defenses to play well again, but some of the tactics on offense may change. Texas should try to get more from their run game. They will also look to use the RBs in the pass game and move the pocket to counter Georgia’s blitzes that saw them get 5 of those 7 sacks from blitzers from the linebacker position and the secondary. For Texas, they too like to get pass rush from blitzing LBs. They ball hawk with the best of them getting 26 turnovers on the year. This one will come down to which QB can handle the pressure of facing a hyper-kinetic defense without making the big mistake. Watch for someone to take a chance in the kicking game to try and get some hidden yards.

Fourth Down: The Big Ten: #3 Penn State (11-1) vs #1 Oregon (12-0) 8:00 CBS Indianapolis, IN: Oregon had an off week after eleven games and they got DE Jordan Burch and WR Tez Johnson back healthy. The whole team looked fast and fresh against Washington and that could spell trouble. This is a game about matchups. How does Oregon account for PSU TE Tyler Warren who has emerged as Penn State’s big-play threat in the run game and the pass game. Teams have bottled up the PSU running backs, but Warren has bailed the offense out. If Warren gets into the Oregon secondary, he faces a group that is undersized compared to some of the other secondaries in the Big Ten. Can the PSU o-line handle the best pass rush ends they’ve seen all year? Burch has elite pass rush ability with 8.5 sacks in just 8 games and his 6-6 295 pound frame makes him disruptive against the run and pass. For PSU’s defense, they will need to pressure QB Dillon Gabriel, but they’re facing the best set of OTs they’ve seen so far. Without getting to the QB they’ll put a huge burden on their secondary to cover not only WR Tez Johnson but also two other fast WRs in Evan Stewart and Traeshon Holden. Stewart went after Ohio State’s best CB and had success on deep passes. Watch the punt return game, because both teams have returners that can hurt you if you get out of a coverage lane. Of note: these two teams had seven common Big Ten opponents and using their performance against the best five of those common opponents is a useful measuring stick.