4-Down Territory: FINALLY a B1G Game for Penn State on a Day Filled With Bigguns

The First Full-Stadium White Out

WHITE OUT! Finally…….A weekend with a plethora of big-name conference games. Folks in Happy Valley have been bored for a month waiting for this game. And around the country the number of big-time conference matchups accelerates this weekend. To make your viewing easier we’ve set the downs up to reflect the various TV windows. This weekend you’ll need an iPad, a smartphone and maybe even a laptop to watch 4 games in a row (or a TV that lets you watch 4 at a time).

First Down: Friday Night Lights: #8 Florida State (3-0) at Virginia (3-1) 7:00 ESPN: This UVA team is off to its best start in a while and is an interception in NC State’s end zone away from being 4-0 right now. UVA QB Chandler Morris transferred in from North Texas and has the offense performing at a high level. Morris has not faced a lot of pressure this year, but FSU will present a big challenge……#24 TCU at Arizona State (3-1) 9:00 FOX: The winner of this game vaults to the head of the class as a likely challenger to the teams everyone thinks are in the Big 12 driver seat—Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Second Down: Saturday High Noon: #21 USC (4-0) at #23 Illinois (3-1) 12:00 FOX: Kickoff for USC is 9 am Pacific time and two weeks ago that seemed to slow Oregon down before they hit the gas at Northwestern. Last week Illinois faced the #2 rated passer in the country, this week they face the #1 rated passer in Jayden Maiava. He is surrounded by speedy weapons. Illinois had trouble with a similar attack last week. For the Illini offense this game will center on their ability to run the ball and protect Luke Altmyer. Indiana consistently hounded him all game. If USC can do the same it will be big trouble for the Illini……#16 Georgia Tech (4-0) at Wake Forest (2-1) 12:00 ESPN: Georgia Tech’s road to the ACC Title game avoids both FSU and Miami. It comes down to keeping their running game going, taking care of the football and playing it one game at a time….. #22 Notre Dame (1-2) at Arkansas (2-2) 12:00 ABC: This game is closer to being a battle of undefeated teams than you might realize, both having lost two heartbreakers. Notre Dame made a concerted effort to get the offense going pushing the ball downfield early last week against Purdue and it paid big dividends. Look for them to take that same approach this week too…….Utah State (3-1) at #18 Vanderbilt (4-0) 12:45 SEC Network: The Commodores with Lionel Richie sang “Easy like Sunday morning.” The Vanderbilt Commodores have one last “Easy” game before facing 4 straight ranked opponents in a gauntlet that includes Alabama, LSU, Missouri and Texas. Truth is there are no “easy” games but having QB Diego Pavia and the confidence and energy he brings sure elevates everyone around him.

Third Down: Mid-Afternoon: #11 Indiana (4-0) at Iowa (3-1) 3:30 Peacock: Last week Iowa had trouble slowing down the Rutgers pass attack in the first half. If they have similar problems against Indiana, the Hoosiers will light them up. Iowa transfer QB Mark Gronowski played his best game as a Hawkeye so far and to keep pace he will need to play at an even higher level. Iowa also has an explosive return game. Winning at Iowa is no small feat but IU QB Fernando Mendoza plays with confidence and is decisive in the pass game…..#1 Ohio State (3-0) at Washington (3-0) 3:30 CBS: This is a tricky game for Ohio State. UW is a loud stadium. They have legit big-time players in QB Demond Williams, RB Jonah Coleman and WR Denzel Boston. And the Huskies probably feel disrespected at not being ranked yet. OSU, as well as they have started the year, feels there is a lot of room for improvement. QB Julian Sayin is among the national top 5 in passing efficiency, RB Bo Jackson has become a big-play threat. On defense the commitment to recruiting big-time talent is paying off even after losing so many players to the draft. And safety Caleb Downs has made sure that the schemes of new defensive coordinator Matt Patricia are executed and understood by all. This will be a fun game to watch……#4 LSU (4-0) at #13 Ole Miss (4-0) 3:30 ABC: LSU jumped up in the rankings with a season-opening win over Clemson and has a win over Florida. But given how the season has unfolded, are those wins a good indicator? One thing is certain, LSU has made a commitment to defense, and it has paid off. Last year it was a liability, this year they rank 17^th in the country. Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss gives LSU the toughest test at QB they will have faced all year. And playing this game in Oxford gives Coach Lane Kiffin and Chambliss an advantage in being able to utilize cadence to move their skill players around and create confusion for the LSU defense……Auburn (3-1) at #9 Texas A&M (3-0) 3:30 ESPN: Auburn struggled with the Oklahoma pass rush last week and the A&M defense loves to get after the QB averaging 3 sacks per game. For the Auburn defense, it is about taking care of 2 big-play WRs on the outside while also having to worry about the scrambling and running threat of A&M QB Marcel Reed. Texas A&M’s run game has yet to really be consistent, so look for Auburn to force A&M out of the big-play pass game and try to make them grind out long drives……#15 Tennessee (3-1) at Mississippi State (4-0) 4:15 SEC Network: Tennessee’s offense has been very good—even in their lone loss to Georgia. Mississippi State has a good win over Arizona State that has given them a lot of confidence. Mississippi State has enough players on offense to challenge Tennessee’s defense. Despite being the favorite, going to Starkville is never easy and the Vols could use a fast start to take the home fans (and their cow bells) out of it early.

Fourth Down: Primetime Games: Arizona (3-0) at #14 Iowa State (4-0) 7:00 ESPN: Iowa State and Texas Tech look like the Big 12 favorites so far. But coming off a bye week after a win against Kansas State watch out for the Wildcats. QB Noah Fifita is a dangerous player and if he gets hot, Arizona could not only make this a tough night for Iowa State, they could ruin the night…… UMass (0-3) at #20 Missouri (4-0) 7:30 ESPNU: With the slate of other games on in primetime, if you’re watching this one you’re either a UMass or Mizzou fan or you have a bunch of money on the game. Tigers should roll…….#17 Alabama (2-1) at #5 Georgia (3-0) 7:30 ABC: Alabama QB Ty Simpson has been nearly flawless since that season-opening loss on the road at Florida State. As tough as that environment was, this is even tougher. Alabama has game-breaking WRs. Georgia had trouble with Tennessee’s passing attack, but they did come up with two interceptions. Alabama has yet to throw an INT this year and that may be a major point of emphasis for them in this one. The Tide has yet to establish a consistently dominant run game. Although Bama is in the Top 20 for total defense, they’ve benefited from playing some offensively challenged teams. Georgia QB Gunner Stockton may be the difference in this game. His ability to repeatedly make plays in the comeback and comeback again road win at Tennessee shows that he is ready for the big stage. But, just like Alabama, UGA is missing the run game that has traditionally made them very dangerous…….#25 BYU (3-0) at Colorado (2-2) 10:15 ESPN: The Cougars are sneaking into the Big 12 conversation, while Colorado needs a pick-me-up win at home to get some program momentum flowing again.

Fifth Down: The Biggest of them All: #6 Oregon (4-0) at #3 Penn State (3-0) 7:30 NBC: College Game Day is here. NBC Big Ten Saturday Night gets a dream game. As a special Pigskin Stew treat we’ve compiled a Big Ten things to look at for this one.

1. Field Position/Hidden Yards: Penn State has dominated the field position through 3 games because of great net punting (6^th in the country), turnover margin (1^st in the country) and some timely returns. Penn State’s average starting field position has been at their own 42 while opponents have averaged at their own 25. All told that has amounted to 634 extra yards in field position—and incredible average of 211.3 yards of what is essentially free total offense over their opponents.

2. Converting Great Field Position/Red Zone: This has been a problem for Penn State. On 11 possessions that have started in opponent’s territory they’ve settled for 6 field goals, just 3 TDs, a punt and an interception. In the Red Zone Penn State has scored 94% of the time but managed a TD just 59% of the time (12^th in the Big Ten). Oregon has scored on 100% of their Red Zone trips and scored TDs 80% of the time (2^nd in the Big Ten).

3. Explosive Plays: Penn State’s starting offense has 8 plays of 20 or more yards and RB Nick Singleton has yet to get a run over 20 yards. Conversely, Oregon’s starters on offense have racked up 30 plays of 20+ yards & even their punter has a 21-yard carry on a fake punt. Look for PSU to try to create more big plays.

4. Halftime Swing: Both Oregon and Penn State have thrived scoring points at the end of the first half. Oregon has 4 TDs on 4 final drives of the first half and Penn State has two TDs and a Field Goal on their final three drives of the first half. Oregon has also racked up 4 TDs on opening drives of the 3^rd quarter.

5. Starting fast: Penn State fans have been less than impressed with their offense’s performance in the first half of games this year. They need to get going early. Oregon has scored TDs on their game-opening drives in 3 of their 4 games. And since Dan Lanning got to Oregon in 2022, they have amassed 187 points on the opening drives –an average of 4.1 points per opening drive.

6. Oregon OTs versus the Penn State Pass Rush: Crowd noise hampers the OTs’ ability to hear cadence and get into their pass sets as quickly. Even a 0.1 second delay makes a massive difference. You may see Oregon move the pocket, throw screens early or use their backs to take the edge off the pass rush.

7. WRs vs DBs: Can the Oregon WRs win the one-on-one matchups vs the Penn State DBs? If they can, that forces Penn State to help them. That takes defenders away from playing the Oregon run game. The same thing on the other side. Do the three transfer WRs for Penn State win one-on-one matchups versus the Oregon DBs? They have had trouble beating the DBs in their first three games. .

8. The Chess Match: When defensive coordinators look at the opponent they have a checklist. Can the QB run and pass? Can their WRs beat our corners? How good is the tight end? Can we get to the QB without blitzing? Can the RBs make big runs? Oregon is tough in all of those areas, so each play is a chess match within a chess match. It will be fun to see adjustments on a play-to-play time frame. Both Oregon and Penn State use multiple personnel groups, formations, shifts and motions. For example, in one seven-play drive against Oregon State, Oregon used 3 different personnel groups, 7 different formations and 4 motions/shifts. 3 x 7 x 4 = 84 variations for defenders to look at. But all of Oregon's shifts become harder to do on the road in a loud stadium.

9: Third Down Issues: Oregon has excelled on third downs (58.1%—10^th in the country). Penn State, despite a soft non-conference schedule, has struggled (38.9%--76^th in the country). The biggest problem has been 3^rd down passing. In 20 pass plays on third downs Penn State has had 3 scrambles (1 for a first down), 2 sacks and has completed 6 of 15 passes –only 3 for first downs. That’s 4 for 20 on 3^rd downs when passing the ball.

10. Patience is a virtue: In games like this sometimes the best defense is an offense that runs the ball, runs the clock and slows the game down. That takes patience. It may mean trying to win a game by limiting the total number of possessions. Getting behind prevents this approach and committing turnovers is kryptonite for this approach.