4-Down Territory: The Big Story in Each Conference & The PSU Coaching Search

This week there are not as many blockbuster big games as last week. So this is a good week to talk about the conference races but also to highlight what we think is the most interesting story of the year so far in each conference.

1^st Down: The ACC & The AAC: NC State (4-3) at Pitt (5-2) 3:30 The ACC Network: That Pitt finds itself in contention in the ACC is interesting. Pat Narduzzi has them back to the core of what has always made his defensive schemes tough. NC State RB Hollywood Smothers is a top 10 rusher nationally and Pitt is a top 5 run defense. Pitt controls their own destiny on the road to the ACC title game, but they conclude the season hosting #12 Notre Dame (a non-conference game), at #7 Georgia Tech and hosting #9 Miami……Stanford (3-4) at #9 Miami (5-1) 7:00 ESPN: Miami’s resurgence would have been the story of the ACC until they lost to Louisville. Now they need help to get to the ACC title game. Stanford weathered a wild finish to beat Florida State last week……Boston College (1-6) at #19 Louisville (5-1) 7:30 The ACC Network: As well as Louisville plays on offense they rank 10^th nationally and 1^st in the ACC on defense…….#18 USF (6-1) at Memphis (6-1) 12:00 ESPN2: USF is another great story for 2025. USF QB Byrum Brown has returned to his dangerous 2023 form. He leads the team in passing and rushing. The Bulls offense is balanced which is the reason they are the top offense in the AAC. Memphis is one of a handful of the contenders and after dropping their first game last week, they will be fired up to defend their home turf…… Syracuse (3-4) at #7 Georgia Tech (7-0) 12:00 ESPN: Georgia Tech has been on a steady upswing since Head Coach Brent Key took over partway through the 2022 season. They have focused on physical play, running the ball and defense. It has resulted in a 7-1 against ranked ACC teams since he took over. Syracuse’s promising start was derailed by an injury at QB. The Ramblin’ Wreck have a slate of unranked ACC opponents between them and an ACC title game berth and a playoff spot.…..#16 Virginia (6-1) at UNC (2-4) 12:00 The ACC Network: In 2022 Virginia was 3-7 with two games to go. Then tragedy struck. Random gun violence took the lives of 3 football players: Devin Chandler, D'Sean Perry, and Lavel Davis. It shocked the program and the whole University. UVA cancelled the rest of the season, the first season for Head Coach Tony Elliot. The next two years UVA finished 3-9 and 5-7 and were not taken seriously as an ACC contender this season. But QB Chandler Morris arrived from North Texas. After a last-second INT in the end zone cost them a non-conference game against NC State it looked like the same old UVA season ahead. Then all the mojo changed, and they are off to one of the best starts in school history. Morris has ignited an offense that now ranks 20^th in total offense, 15^th in 3^rd down conversions and 9^th in scoring. The steady rise from tragedy to serious ACC contender makes UVA the most interesting story in the ACC. I confess some personal bias being married to a UVA alum and having started my coaching career there working for Hall of Fame coach George Welsh. UVA heads to UNC which is a ways away from realizing the potential many expected with their future Pro Football Hall of Fame head coach. This is the 130^th meeting of what has been called “the South’s Oldest Rivalry” but there is some debate to that claim.

2^nd Down: The Big XII: Baylor (4-3) at #21 Cincinnati (6-1) 4:00 ESPN2: The Bearcats are off to a great start and are one of only two teams who are undefeated in conference play. Beneath that 4-0 record the combined conference record of the teams they’ve played is 5-12. The road to the title game will get steeper starting this week with Baylor…….Houston (6-1) at #24 Arizona State (5-2) 8:00 ESPN2: With QB Sam Leavitt back playing to his potential the Sun Devils will be a factor in the Big XII race. Houston is probably the best team left on their schedule. Houston is 6-1 but lost their only other game against a ranked opponent…..Oklahoma State (1-6) at #14 Texas Tech (6-1) 4:00 ESPNU: Texas Tech alum Cody Campbell and the big-dollar roster could have been the most interesting Big XII story until their loss to Arizona State. But they have a great defense, a talented roster and will remain a real factor in the Big XII race and in the hunt for a playoff spot. Expect a big bounce back against Oklahoma State this weekend. But the story of the year so far in the Big XII is in the mountains of Provo…..#11 BYU (7-0) at Iowa State (5-2) 3:30 FOX: This offseason BYU QB Jake Retzlaff was suspended by BYU for an alleged violation of BYU honor code policy. It was a big hit late in the summer and for the fans it looked like all hope was lost. Then freshman QB Bear Bachmeier emerged as a dual pass/run threat. His 9 passing TDs and 8 rushing TDs have helped the Cougars’ offense. RB LJ Martin is the 5^th-leading rusher in the country and has already surpassed his full season production last year for their Top 10 rushing attack. Now BYU is the highest-ranked Big XII team which was hardly expected from a team that was unranked when the season began. On the other hand, Iowa State started 5-0 but has dropped their last two games. They’ve moved the ball the last two games, but they’ve struggled in situational football converting just 8 of 28 3^rd downs and just 4 of 8 4^th downs in those games.

3^rd Down: SEC It Just Means More: #4 Alabama (6-1) at South Carolina (3-4) 3:30 ABC: Does it bother anyone in the SEC that their “most dominant” team Alabama was dominated in a season-opening loss to a Florida State team that is 1-11 in its last 12 ACC games (last win was September 21, 2024)? Of course not. They keep beating other ranked SEC teams in a league where teams get the benefit of the doubt in the polls……#17 Tennessee (5-2) at Kentucky (2-4) 7:45 The SEC Network: Tennessee will look to get its offense rolling again this week after a tough loss to Alabama. Kentucky is a dangerous place as Texas found out last week…….#8 Ole Miss (6-1) at #13 Oklahoma (6-1) 12:00 ABC: Ole Miss has a nearly unstoppable offense that will meet its toughest test of the year this week. OU likes to mix up blitzes and coverages and seems to have a knack for what to call at the right time. Ole Miss Coach Lane Kiffin expressed concern that the OU staff may be really good at picking off opponents’ hand signals at the line. Keep an eye on that chess match Saturday….#15 Missouri (6-1) at #10 Vanderbilt (6-1) 3:30 ESPN: Vanderbilt’s rise is one of the big stories in the SEC and each week more and more doubters start to fall away. Both of these teams are in the playoff hunt right now. Missouri will want to establish their run game which has fallen off the pace the last two weeks. Both quarterbacks in this game provide dynamic leadership as well as running and passing skills that drive their offenses. Both of these teams are among the nation’s best pass rush units and that will prove to be very important in containing these two QBs……..#3 Texas A&M (7-0) at #20 LSU (5-2) 7:30 ABC: The Aggies’ rise to the top of the polls is another one of the big SEC stories. Coach Mike Elko has done a remarkable job in Aggieland this year. But can they stay there? The A&M defense may be an issue. They are a great pass rush team. DE Cashius Howell is 6^th nationally with 8 sacks and 11 other Aggies have registered sacks this year. But as a unit they are 61^st in scoring defense, and 61^st in pass efficiency defense. Good news for the Aggies is that among their last 4 SEC opponents only one (Missouri #10) has a top-ranked offense. The other three SEC teams they play are struggling on offense including LSU (82^nd) this week, South Carolina (127^th) and Texas (80^th)…….#22 Texas (5-2) at Mississippi State (4-3) 4:15 SEC: And speaking of Texas, the preseason #1 team in the country has fallen well short of expectations but mostly on offense. QB Arch Manning has not had the kind of season expected of him, but they’re not getting some of the big plays from the run game that they’ve had in recent years. But on defense they have excelled. They are #3 in scoring defense and #12 in total defense. They’ve posted those numbers by thriving on chaos/disruptive plays being among the national leaders in passes broken up, turnovers and sacks. The secondary is smothering with all of the 5 DBs in their regular rotation standing at least 6 feet tall and having grabbed 8 INTs on the year. The trip to Mississippi State will be even more dangerous than the near miss at Kentucky last week. The Bulldogs have been a different team in Starkville with a win over Arizona State and an OT loss to Tennessee. Their offense poses a real threat, so look for the UT to lean on that defense once again.

4^th Down: The Big Ten Corner: No one does (or over-does) trophy games like the Big Ten....TROPHY GAME ALERT: #25 Michigan (5-2) at Michigan State (3-4) 7:30 NBC: Paul Bunyan is up for grabs in this game as he has been every year since 1953. Michigan comes into this game with an offense that is getting better every week. The Spartans defense will have their hands full. The UM defense shut down Washington's dynamic attack last week and faces another talented mobile QB this week......TROPHY GAME ALERT: Minnesota (5-2) at Iowa (5-2) 3:30 CBS— A bronze pig "Floyd of Rosedale" goes to this game's winner as it has since the mid-1930s. Minnesota is coming off their best defensive performance. Iowa's offense is predicated on the run game with a physical attack that chews up yards and the clock. The Iowa defense is in the Top 20 again as they have been every year for over a decade......Northwestern (5-2) at Nebraska (5-2) 12:00 FS1; Northwestern is one win away from bowl eligibility but with their remaining games (at Nebraska, at USC, Michigan, Minnesota and at Illinois) there are no “gimme putts” to get that 6^th win. But they are playing well defensively. The Nebraska offense provides a big test…..Rutgers (3-4) at Purdue (2-5) 12:00 Big Ten Network: The Scarlet Knights need this win as they track down a third straight bowl season……#23 Illinois (5-2) at Washington (5-2) 3:30 Big Ten Network: If this was a game in the SEC, both of these teams would be ranked in the Top 25. As it is, these are two good teams squaring off. Illinois is the more veteran team of the two. Washington is a team that could be a year away from a Big Ten contending season……

Wisconsin (2-5) at #6 Oregon (6-1) 7:00 FS1: Just when you think things can’t get any more creative (or some would say weird) in Eugene, Oregon has called for a “Tie-Dye Out” asking fans to dress in their finest Tie-Dye apparel. Nike has partnered in this with special uniforms, and a collaboration with Class Trip, the official apparel company of the Grateful Dead. The Dead played Autzen Stadium 10 times and Oregon honors that with a line of “Grateful Ducks” apparel and uniforms. As for the actual game, Wisconsin is coming off back-to-back shutout losses at home. Playing Oregon will not be the remedy for their offensive woes. The Ducks got back on track last week with a road rout at Rutgers (750 yards of offense) and look to continue that momentum into the home stretch…….UCLA (3-4) at #2 Indiana (7-0) 12:00 FOX: The Hoosiers are #2 in the country and are in the National Top 10 on offense and defense and are playing with incredible confidence. As for UCLA they started 0-4 and after switching head coaches and coordinators they bombed Top 10 Penn State igniting their season and sending Penn State into a tailspin. UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava has had a re-birth of sorts. The numbers UCLA’s offense has put up the past three weeks have shown dramatic improvement. Using just those three weeks they would be #43 in scoring offense (33.3), #43 in total offense (422.3), #10 in rushing offense (233.3) and #17 in 3^rd down conversions (50%). Anyone still doubting IU should look again. QB Fernando Medoza is orchestrating an attack with a set of skill players that creates matchup issues. If your defense is just one step out of position, they will make you pay. The pass rush and defense can be stifling as they showed against a great Oregon offense. Controlling the clock and preventing big plays will be the key to playing them as Iowa showed in their near miss against the Hoosiers. These two teams would be the stories of the year in the Big Ten, except for.......

 5^th Down: Penn State Corner: In just 15 days Penn State went from #3 in the country with a 7-point OT lead against Oregon to unranked and firing their head coach. So, let’s talk about coaching hires. And to be clear what follows is no way inside information specific to Penn State.

Fans always want the big-name hire, the home run. But there are always a lot of really good coaches that can succeed at a school if they are the right fit. And for all the “big name” candidates there are a whole range of other guys that can be great at a place like Penn State, many of them are guys whose names you wouldn’t even know. History is instructive here.

After an undefeated season in 1968 PSU Head Coach Joe Paterno met with Michigan AD Don Canham in Pittsburgh where Joe was offered the Michigan job. Joe turned it down. While Michigan fans were left searching for the big-name guy, Canham was a football guy who called coaches and contacts he had. He called Joe Paterno back and asked about Bo Schembechler, the head coach at Miami, OH.

“Woody Hayes told me that Bo was the best assistant coach he ever had.” Canham said.

“If Woody told you that, you’d better hire him.” Paterno replied.

The response to Schembechler’s hiring included a headline that said, “Bo Who?” That hire worked out for the Wolverines. Lloyd Carr was a career assistant who became the interim Head Coach at Michigan. And despite pressure to go do a national search, Carr became the Head Coach and won a National Title. Dan Lanning at Oregon was a defensive coordinator when he was hired to take over the Ducks. In this era schools employ analytics firms and search firms to make these hires, but often the best resource is other football coaches. These guys all know who can and who can’t coach.

On another Penn State note, interim Head Coach Terry Smith indicated that there would be some scheme changes in the offense. By way of background, when Terry was a Head Coach at Gateway High School he was an offensively-minded guy who was pretty innovative.

And changing things during an off week is possible. In 2001 during an off week, Joe Paterno shook up the offense pulling out some files from 1970 when he made offensive changes in that season.

In 1970 he changed the offense to feature the talents of the personnel he had on hand and over the next 19 games in 1970 & 71 games the team went 17-2 and averaged 36.8 points per game. In 2001 he made similar changes and across the next 19 games they averaged 34 points per game.

One thing Terry Smith is sure to address will be the downfield and intermediate pass attack. Last week Penn State completed 15 passes. Eight were caught behind the line and 6 were caught less than 10 yards downfield with just one completed beyond ten yards—a 14-yard pass. The hit chart below shows a yellow line as the line of scrimmage. Completions are marked with a green X, incompletions with a red x. Note that the deepest attempt of the night was underthrown but did result in a pass interference penalty. Watch to see what happens next week in Columbus.