4-Down Territory: Headed into the Home Stretch of Conference Races & IU Comes to Penn State

The First College Football Playoff Rankings are out and Ohio State is number one.....

1st Down: The ACC: Virginia is in the Driver’s Seat but there is a big pack in pursuit.

Syracuse (3-6) at #18 Miami (6-2) 3:30 ESPN: The Hurricanes had high hopes starting the season, but two ACC losses have left their conference title and playoff chances in serious jeopardy. The difference in the U’s losses to Louisville & SMU were the 6 interceptions thrown by QB Carson Beck. If Miami protects the ball, they’ll win this one….Wake Forest (5-3) at #14 Virginia (8-1) 7:00 ESPN: The Demon Deacons of Wake Forest upset SMU and nearly pulled off the stunner against Georgia Tech. Winning by 10 at Cal felt like a runaway win for UVA after 4 straight one-score wins; 3 of which went to OT. UVA will need to play with the consistency they had on offense earlier in the season to keep Wake Forest from getting another upset…..Cal (5-4) at #15 Louisville (7-1) 7:00 ESPN2: Cal has lost 3 of their last four games and has given up 118 points in those losses. Louisville has lacked the balance in the run game beyond the efforts of RB Isaac Brown who racked up 448 yards on just 45 carries the past three games. But he is out for this game. The Cardinals may need to lean on their defense which has been strong all year and ranks 11^th nationally.

2^nd Down: The Big XII: Wild, wide open Race Runs Hot Starting This Weekend---Plus Notre Dame: BYU leads the league with 2 1-loss teams behind them, then four 2-loss teams (Houston, Utah, Arizona State and TCU) looming to get back into the hunt.

#7 BYU (8-0) at #8 Texas Tech (8-1) 12:00 ABC: This is a game with Big XII and playoff implications. This might be the biggest game played in Lubbock since the epic win over Texas in the days when legendary coach Mike Leach was patrolling the Tech sidelines. ESPN College Gameday is in town and Kirk Herbstreit and Chris Fowler will make a rare noon game call for ABC. A win here puts the Red Raiders in the driver’s seat with two games left in which they will be big favorites. Tech has shown strength on both sides of the ball. They are in the Top ten in total offense and in scoring. They also rate in the top ten in total defense and scoring defense. This game is a tale of two QBs. Tech Senior Behren Morton returned to form against Kansas State last week after battling through some injuries. He ranks 5^th nationally in pass efficiency. By comparison BYU freshman QB Bear Bachmeier has thrown 11 TD passes and ranks 39^th in pass efficiency, but he adds a run game element to the attack with 400+ yards and 9 rushing TDs. The BYU defense may not be as stout as Texas Tech, but they do rank 27^th in total defense (318 ypg) and 16^th in scoring defense (17.0 ppg). The team that can get the most from their run game may be the team that walks out in command of the Big XII race.……Navy (7-1) at #10 Notre Dame (6-2) 7:30 NBC: Irish freshman QB CJ Carr has played at a high level. Notre Dame’s ball control offense has also shortened the game for their defense and that has helped show an improvement in their performance on D. WR Malachi Fields is 6-4 tall and averages 19.0 yards per catch. Tight end Eli Raridon stands 6-7 and averages 16.9 per catch. Between the height and the downfield threats they present, it will be a tough matchup for the Navy secondary. Given that no non-Power 4 school made the first playoff rankings, the door is wide open. A win here would certainly vault them into the pole position in that chase.

3^rd Down: The SEC: Five teams pulling away from the pack:

#5 Georgia (7-1) at Mississippi State (5-4) 12:00 ESPN: Starkville has been a tough place for visiting ranked teams this year. The Bulldogs (Miss State) beat #24 Arizona State 24-20 while #15 Tennessee and #22 Texas both needed OT to leave town with the W. Georgia has been inconsistent on offense at times, and part of that has been a lack of explosive plays in the pass game from their receivers. The run game has also been less productive than usual for UGA. But QB Gunner Stockton has consistently protected the football and the UGA defense has been very good when needed. If Mississippi State’s offense can play at the level they had against Tennessee earlier this year and in putting up 38 on an outstanding Texas defense (445 yards, 38 points) they may get over the hump against Georgia……The Citadel (4-5) at #6 Ole Miss (8-1) 1:00 SEC Network: Barring a sloppy day from Ole Miss, the Rebels should roll in this tune-up before their final two SEC games. No doubt they will be rooting for Mississippi State to help them out by beating Georgia…….#3 Texas A&M (8-0) at #22 Missouri (6-2) 3:30 ABC: The run game for Texas A&M has ramped up with more production from the running backs taking the run game pressure off QB Marcel Reed. The last 4 weeks the Aggies have rolled up 923 yards on the ground. Any defense facing the downfield threat of the A&M receiving corps as well as a more balanced run game will have to make some decisions on what they want to take away. The A&M defense has played well at times but also had days where they surrendered a lot of points, most recently yielding 42 in a narrow win over Arkansas. Mizzou will be without QB Beau Pribula, but after his injury QB Matt Zollers filled in well bringing the Tigers within a few feet of beating Vanderbilt. With Zollers lacking the mobility that Pribula had, they will need to move the pocket and throw some screens and draws to slow down a fierce A&M pass rush……Auburn (4-5) at #16 Vanderbilt (7-2) 4:00 SEC Network: The Tigers joined the list of major Power-4 schools that fired their head coach. They present a solid defensive test for Vanderbilt in what is a playoff elimination game for the Commodores…..LSU (5-3) at #4 Alabama (7-1) 7:30 ABC: Like Auburn, LSU also fired their head coach. What started as a promising season has been a major disappointment as the offense has failed to live up to the preseason expectations. The Tide is where they expected to be. QB Ty Simpson and the pass game are carrying the offense. What seems strange is to see Alabama’s leading rusher with just 308 yards through 9 games. But Alabama has been good enough in all the other phases of the games to run a daunting gauntlet of 4 ranked opponents. But they did have a narrow escape at South Carolina in their last outing that required a 15 point run to win by 7. Given the upheaval at LSU that has even included firing the AD and the Governor weighing in on the coaching search, the off-field noise may be even harder to tune out for LSU than the noise inside Bryant-Denny Stadium.

4^th Down: The Big Ten: Two for the Show, Michigan, USC Looming: Ohio State and Indiana are undefeated. IU owns wins over two of the other contenders.

Northwestern (5-3) at #19 USC (6-2) Friday 9:00 FOX: Northwestern has a solid defense that has limited big plays to keep their teams in games. They will need that in facing a USC offense which has weapons all over the place. Open field tackling will be vital. If the Wildcats can slow the game down, limit the big plays and stay within striking range they have shown an ability to win in the 4^th quarter. USC’s defense has shown improvement across the board and they have a real chance to make some noise down the stretch……#1 Ohio State (8-0) at Purdue (2-7) 1:00 Big Ten Network: While the secondary for Ohio State has gotten a lot of well-deserved attention, LB Arvell Reese and DT Kayden McDonald are as good at their positions as anyone in the country. That spells trouble for Purdue…… #23 Washington (6-2) at Wisconsin (2-6) 4:30 Big Ten Network: The Huskies are coming off a bye week before heading to Mad-town for a game versus the Badgers. The Huskies offense has an electric QB and run game which stands in stark contrast to Wisconsin. But the Badger defense has shown an ability to limit the run game of strong opponents. Ohio State started the game against the Badgers by throwing the ball early and often. And while Washington’s WRs may not be in the same class at OSU’s (a damn high bar), they are dangerous and should prove more than capable of making the big plays needed to win the game…..Maryland (4-4) at Rutgers (4-5) 2:30 FS1: Both of these teams need this game if they are going to get to bowl eligibility. Both teams have talented QBs and WRs and both teams will need improved play on defense. Turnovers will prove key……Nebraska (6-3) at UCLA (3-5) 9:00 FOX: The Cornhuskers will have to adjust to life without QB Dylan Raiola who is injured and out for the season. UCLA’s defensive philosophy has been to aggressively play the WRs and put pressure on the run game. Without their QB the Huskers will be run-heavy this week and for the rest of the season. They will also have to contain UCLA’s run game which has been bolstered by an emphasis on the QB run game……#9 Oregon (7-1) at #20 Iowa (6-2) 3:30 CBS: Both of these teams have outstanding defenses. Iowa’s Achilles heel has been the need for big plays on the outside by the WRs. Hawkeye QB Mark Gronowski is a big physical runner and has been a threat racking up 11 rushing TDs. Look for Oregon to be physical on the outside. They'll likely bring more defenders around the ball to stop the run game and assign a defender to limit Gronowski’s effectiveness. Iowa is a tough place to play, but Oregon was able to go into loud stadiums and move and shift without penalties when they went into Penn State. Iowa’s defense is based on simplicity in their assignments and being active readers of pass routes and blocking schemes to prevent big plays. Oregon will need to be patient in their approach because Iowa thrives on getting teams to make impatient mistakes.

Penn State Corner: #2 Indiana (9-0) at Penn State (3-5) 12:00 FOX: Penn State is in the third game of a brutal three game stretch at Iowa, at #1 Ohio State and now at home against #2 Indiana. For the first half last week, Penn State was effective in staying within striking distance of Ohio State by outrushing the Buckeyes and getting a key turnover. IU presents a bigger challenge because they are a better running team than OSU. They have a mobile QB in Fernando Mendoza who is an active element of the run game along with their two big physical RBs. The IU receivers are tall and physical. They can hurt you blocking in the run game and with big plays in the pass game. Indiana wins the situation game with big plays. They lead the nation in scoring and rank in the national Top 10 in every major offensive category. Given Penn State’s run defense struggles, expect IU to be aggressive early in the run game. The Hoosiers have run for 300+ yards in 6 of 9 games and 250+ in another game. That will be a key indicator in this game.

As if the IU offense wasn’t impressive enough, they also boast a Top 10 defense in the major defensive categories. They thrive on disruptive plays, 29 sacks, 76 tackles for loss, 13 Interceptions and a +12 turnover margin. Those numbers are all among the nation’s best marks. Penn State’s new QB Ethan Grunkemeyer is growing each week, and last week was 5 of 7 passing on third downs against Ohio State for 5 first downs. He did get sacked 3 times on 3^rd downs but that was more on the offensive line. In the first half RB Kaytron Allen carried the ball 16 times and had early success. He only had 5 carries in the second half, part of that was a function of PSU falling behind. If Penn State can establish him consistently it can help control then tempo of this game and boost time of possession to keep IU’s offense off the field.

PSU-IU History: Penn State leads this series 25-2 all-time with all 27 meetings coming after Penn State joined the Big Ten for football in 1993. #19 Penn State won a shootout over #17 Indiana 38-31. That game started a 20-game winning streak for Penn State that included wins over #17 Indiana (38-31), #25 Michigan State (38-37), #6 Tennessee (31-13), #14 USC (38-14), #5 Michigan 31-24, #21 Ohio State (63-14) and #12 Oregon (38-21)—an average margin of victory of 17.7 points in those seven wins. WR Thomas Lewis of Indiana proved to be a major match-up problem, and he finished that game with a ridiculous 285 yards receiving. That remains the record for receiving yards by a PSU opponent. That was the only other time in the series where IU was the higher-ranked team entering the game.

The Big Ten was a deeper league back then. From 1993 when Penn State joined the league 8 different teams (out of 11 teams) won the Big Ten title in the first 10 years. The only three teams not to win the Big Ten in that decade were Indiana, Minnesota and Michigan State. Today IU is in great position to win their first Big Ten Title in the expansion era that began in 1993.