4-Down Territory: Ghosts of Preseason Top 25 Replaced by New Contenders. PSU Heads to Columbus

Everyone loves a good ghost story and the ghosts of the past. And college football has a history that always looms over the present.

The preseason AP Top 25 has 11 ghosts that have completely disappeared from the rankings ten weeks later: #2 Penn State, #4 Clemson, #9 LSU, #11 Arizona State, #12 Illinois, #13 South Carolina, #15 Florida, #16 SMU, #17 Kansas State, #22 Iowa State and #25 Boise State. Those teams have a combined record of 47-38. To be fair Boise State does have a 6-2 record and was at #25 to start. But all hope for PSU (3-4), Clemson (3-4), South Carolina (3-5), Florida (3-4) and Kansas State (4-4) rising to return to the rankings seems lost.

But in the place of those ghosts, we welcome the following unranked preseason teams to the Top 25 #8 Georgia Tech, #9 Vanderbilt, #10 BYU, #15 Virginia, #16 Louisville, #17 Cincinnati, #19 Missouri, #22 Houston, #23 USC, #24 Utah and #25 Memphis. These teams have Top 25 resumes but remain unranked: Navy (7-0), Washington (6-2), Iowa (6-2) and Pitt (6-2).

1st Down: The ACC: Friday: UNC (2-5) at Syracuse (3-5) 7:30 ESPN: UNC came within half a foot of beating UVA on a 2-point conversion last week. Syracuse looks to get back on track before consecutive road games at Miami and Notre Dame…..#8 Georgia Tech (8-0) at NC State (4-4) 7:30 ESPN2: Tech QB Haynes King is getting no Heisman love but in the last 4 games he has rushed 61 times for 377 yards and 7 TDs and hit 87 of 118 passes for 965 yards, 5 TDs and ZERO interceptions…….#10 Miami (6-1) at SMU (5-3) 12:00 ESPN: While Miami needs help to make the ACC title game they must remember the old saying that the Lord helps those who help themselves. While SMU faltered last week they remain a potential spoiler with some dangerous skill players on offense……#15 Virginia (7-1) at Cal (5-3) 3:45 ESPN2: The UVA o-line will have to protect QB Chandler Morris much better than they did at UNC where he was sacked 6 times and harassed into his worst performance of the year. But narrow misses have been the theme of the year with UVA winning 3 OT games in the last four weeks……#16 Louisville (6-1) at Virginia Tech (3-5) 3:00 The CW: One of the key stats for Louisville this year has been turnovers. The Cardinals’ defense ranks among the national leaders with 16 turnovers in just 7 games…….#12 Notre Dame (5-2) at Boston College (1-7) 3:30 ESPN: The one-two punch of Notre Dame’s running attack should prove too much for a BC defense that is allowing opponents to rush for 4.66 yards per carry (105^th in the country).

2nd Down: The Big XII and AAC: Friday: #25 Memphis (7-1) at Rice (4-4) 7:00 ESPN2: A big comeback win over USF has Memphis back in the Top 25. With one conference loss they are just one game behind undefeated Tulane and Navy who are both ahead on the schedule. But they must take care of Rice first…….#13 Texas Tech (7-1) at Kansas State (4-4) 3:30 FOX: If K-State is going to beat the Red Raiders they will need to do so throwing the ball. Texas Tech has the nation’s best run defense. Also, good news for Tech, starting QB Behren Morris took an extra week of healing last week to get him healthier for the stretch run……West Virginia (2-6) at #22 Houston (7-1) 12:00 FS1: Both of WVU’s wins have come against teams from Pittsburgh (Pitt & Robert Morris). Houston jumps into the Top 25 after sweeping the state of Arizona the past 2 weeks (Arizona & at previously ranked Arizona State). Houston has good balance on offense and that presents a problem to a WVU defense that has struggled of late……#17 Cincinnati (7-1) at #24 Utah (6-2) 10:15 ESPN: It is such a bizarre week of games that College Gameday finds itself in Salt Lake City this week. Cincinnati is on a 7-game roll and of late has been dominant in wins over Oklahoma State and Baylor. The climb gets a lot steeper with games at Utah and against BYU two weeks later. Utah is one of the underrated loud stadiums in the country. But more importantly than the noise level from the fans has been a physical run game and defensive front for the Utes.

3rd Down: The SEC: South Carolina (3-5) at Ole Miss (7-1) 7:00 ESPN: The Ole Miss offense continues to impress. But to their credit the South Carolina defense played well enough to beat Alabama last week. Can the Gamecocks summon that same type of effort and pressure on the road in Oxford? On the flip side the Ole Miss defense was much improved last week and will need to stay on that upward trajectory because South Carolina QB Lanorris Sellers remains a threat…..#5 Georgia (6-1) vs Florida (3-4) in Jacksonville 3:30 ABC: Georgia just keeps doing what they do: winning. They can beat you 20-10 or in a shootout 44-41. Both teams are coming off bye weeks which has given the Gators two weeks to adjust to having an interim head coach. That means the Bulldogs will need to be ready for some things they may not have seen on film. And Florida has enough talent to pull off this upset……#18 Oklahoma (6-2) at #14 Tennessee (6-2) 7:30 ABC: No doubt Tennessee will try to emulate some of the same things Ole Miss did to attack a very good OU defense. The hurry-up pace that the Vols like give defenses less time to line up and play cat-and-mouse with complex schemes. On offense OU will be looking to regain the early-season confidence they had…..#9 Vanderbilt (7-1) at #20 Texas (6-2) 12:00 ABC: If Arch Manning can’t go this week, the pressure really falls to the UT defense and special teams. Teams would be well advised to avoid punting to UT’s Ryan Niblett whose punt return TDs broke open the win over OU and helped the Longhorns get to OT and beat Mississippi State. This game feels like an elimination game and Vandy has thrived on that kind of pressure. They were literally less than half a yard on a completed last-play Hail Mary pass from going to OT vs Missouri. Vanderbilt is relying on solid situational football on defense while doing well with disruptive plays like sacks and turnovers. If UT plays a new QB expect Vandy to crank up the heat on defense.

4th Down: The Big Ten Corner: #2 Indiana (8-0) at Maryland (4-3) 3:30 CBS: Indiana never seems to ease up on the gas pedal and that will spell trouble for the Terps. IU looks like one of the two or three most complete and consistent teams in the country. Meanwhile, Maryland has three straight one-score losses and is better than their record may indicate. Is this the week they put it all together? Probably not…….Purdue (2-6) at #21 Michigan (6-2) 7:00 Big Ten Network: The Big Ten has four teams that are winless in conference play; Michigan State, Wisconsin, Penn State and Purdue. Michigan is building momentum as November approaches and has a fairly friendly slate of games between now and the season-ending game against Ohio State. Look for the Wolverines to be aggressive early in this one…….Rutgers (4-4) at Illinois (5-3) 12:00 NBC: The Rutgers pass attack has been potent this year with two physical receivers that stand 6-6 and 6-3. Illinois will look to make waves against the leaky RU pass pro that has allowed 28 sacks this year. Look for RU to try and establish RB Antwan Raymond who ranks 4^th in the Big Ten in rushing. Illinois QB Luke Altmyer is one of the top-rated passers in the country and he will attack the Rutgers defense which has been uncharacteristically permissive this year…..Michigan State (3-5) at Minnesota (5-3) 3:30 Big Ten Network: Sparty has been struggling but they remain a threat to an inconsistent Gophers' team.......#23 USC (5-2) at Nebraska (6-2) 7:30 NBC: Matt Rhule has signed an extension with Nebraska –a well-deserved recognition of his value as a coach on and off the field. Rhule and Lincoln Riley squared off three times as head coaches at Baylor and Oklahoma respectively in the Big XII from 2017-19. In those three games the teams combined for 254 points (an average of 84.5 points per game). Don’t expect numbers like that when these teams meet up because both teams have played aggressively on defense. That being said, there is a lot of offensive talent on the field with two outstanding young QBs.

5th Down: Other teams that should be Ranked: Navy (7-0) at North Texas (7-1) 12:00 ESPN2: Both Navy & North Texas could make a case to be ranked. The winner of this one should find themselves jumping from “also receiving votes” into the Top 25……Pitt (6-2) at Stanford (3-5) 3:30 ACC Network: Since making a change at QB this has been a much better Pitt team. They’ve scored 165 points the last four games and won games against BC, NC State at Florida State and at Syracuse by an average of 20 points per game.

Penn State Corner: Penn State (3-4) at #1 Ohio State (7-0) 12:00 FOX: This marks the 33^rd straight year Penn State and Ohio State have played, the longest active streak against another team for both schools. Speaking of streaks Ohio State has won eight straight in the series but only by average of 6.75 points. And lastly in the notes, Ryan Day has been the Head Coach at OSU for 87 games. In 86 of those games the Buckeyes have been ranked in the AP Top 10, and in the other game back in 2021 they were ranked #11.

Can history repeat itself?

The last time Penn State won in Columbus was in 2011, the second time in four years the Nittany Lions won in the Horseshoe. Penn State unveiled a offensive package using RB Bill Belton and WR Curtis Drake as wildcat QBs to open up an exciting run game and beat the Buckeyes. PSU coach Terry Smith hinted that PSU would be adding some plays in the bye week. Will we see a PSU RB or WR playing wildcat this week to open up the run game?

In 1983 Penn State was the defending national champs and were sitting at 3-3 when they faced a three-week run that included games against #3 Alabama and #4 West Virginia. Penn State beat both and finished 8-4-1 and ranked 17^th.

In 1964 Rip Engle’s Nittany Lions were 3-4 with a home loss to Oregon, a loss at UCLA and headed to #2 Ohio State and were massive underdogs. That week Penn State simplified its defense and changed the offense and beat Ohio State 27-0 in Columbus. The night before the game assistant coach Joe Paterno told an incredulous sports information director Jim Tarman that PSU would shutout the Buckeyes. It happened and a VW Bug ended up in a pond on PSU’s campus just outside the university President’s official residence. In the 39 previous PSU/OSU games there have been 3 shutouts: 1912 PSU 37 OSU 0, 1964 PSU 27 OSU 0, 1978 PSU 19 OSU 0 --all in Columbus.

But what about this week?

Keep an eye on how Penn State’s center and guards fare against #98 Kayden McDonald a 326-pound DT who makes plays. The LBs are both big. Sonny Styles (6-5 243) & Arvell Reese (6-4 243) are active playmakers. Reese has 5 ½ sacks already this season. The corners are tall (average height 6-1 ½ ) and safety Caleb Downs gives them the brains and athleticism to be a very complex defense for a PSU QB making just his 2nd start.

The OSU defense will match your personnel. If you have two tight ends in the game, they will have three LBs on the field. If you don’t huddle and can throw the ball against that personnel, you keep them from subbing and calling more complex blitzes and coverages. The same goes for your three receiver sets. They will go to 5 defensive backs which creates some advantages in the run game with a bigger back like Kaytron Allen.

It becomes a chess match play after play.

In the special teams, PSU leads the country in blocked kicks. OSU’s punt operation is more deliberate at times and that may create a punt block chance for Penn State.

On defense, PSU faces a patient OSU offense. They take what you give them and are playing controlled football. Against Washington, a team that was going to take away the WRs in the pass game, the Buckeyes opened with 10 runs and 5 passes in the first 15 plays. Wisconsin was going to play the run with soft coverage to take away the deep pass. OSU opened with 14 passes and 1 run in the first 15 plays. Watch how they start the game.

OSU has not been as effective running the ball behind an o-line that was rebuilt from last year. If PSU can stop the run without having to load up, they can rely on open field tackling to keep the Buckeyes in check. But Bo Jackson and CJ Donaldson are bigger backs who seem to always run through tackles for extra yardage at the point of contact.

They have two first-round WRs (Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate) and a QB (Julian Sayin) that is hitting a nation’s-best 80% of his passes. Lately he’s shown patience by taking the underneath throws to running backs and tight ends to move the chains and hold the ball. They get the ball out quickly, but the 6-1 Julian Sayin has had some balls tipped. PSU’s pass rush should get their hands up if the rush isn’t getting home.

Ohio State likes to start fast, outscoring their opponents 120-12 in the first half and have yet to give up a TD in the first half. If PSU can weather the initial storm, they can take this game into the third and fourth quarter where they can make a play to have a chance to win.